It's mainly due to the electoral college with florida being a swing state (in those apps where you can assign swing states to candidates, assigning fL to candid

It's mainly due to the electoral college with florida being a swing state (in those apps where you can assign swing states to candidates, assigning fL to candidate X updates their chance of winning to 99%). Whoever wins florida, usually wins the presidency. Alot of the people who fled cuba are extremely anti current regime/socialism etc. If the US normalizes relations to cuba, those cubans in florida would flip the vote for the other party. Ironically as florida becomes solid red, the cubans in FL would no longer have leverage to flip and the current white house party can then proceed with normalizing relations.