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"Comeback" vs "decline" is just a rhetorical frame. Ultimately what I see is that Twitter has a unsurpassed level of social graph in terms of metcalfe connectiv
by gfodor 3y ago
"Comeback" vs "decline" is just a rhetorical frame. Ultimately what I see is that Twitter has a unsurpassed level of social graph in terms of metcalfe connectivity, and that the value of the network itself seems to provide a significant force for people to come back. It's not hard to understand why: Fowler's post shows it. The fact he can't sever his connection to X because there are people on there shows that this is an unstable state. The question is which way things will tip given that networks inevitably consolidate. The next stable state of consolidation is either some new network with dense connectivity or an existing one. So, you have to be able to point at what that network is to say if you're making an actual alternative prediction.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- lucideer 3y ago> you have to be able to point at what that network is You don't really. In fact, historically, migrations away from a large declining platform don't tend to have a unified destination. Consolidation doesn't happen directly, it's usually a later stage of any given social network (immediately preceding decline). e.g. people didn't move from MySpace to Facebook en masse. They went to LastFm, Bebo, Orkut, many other places. It wasn't until long after Myspace's decline that Facebook started to be a singular dominant force (at which stage Snapchat/Vine/Instagram/others started seeping in). > The next stable state of consolidation This "stable consolidation" tends to follow mass abandonment of a network to disparate places, it doesn't precede it.