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Experts are not lawmakers. We aren't looking for them to craft regulation, we're looking to hear from them about the various realistic scenarios that could play

Experts are not lawmakers. We aren't looking for them to craft regulation, we're looking to hear from them about the various realistic scenarios that could play out. But we're not hearing anything. ...probably because there isn't much to hear. Like, Hinton's big warning is that AI will be used to steal identities. What does that tell us? We already know that identity isn't reliable. We've known that for centuries. Realistically, we've likely known that throughout the entirety of human existence. AI doesn't change anything on that front.

danenania 3y ago
I guess my experience is different. I've heard plenty about realistic scenarios. It's out there if you look for it, or even if you just spend time thinking it through. Identity theft is far from the biggest danger even with current capabilities. Though to your point, I think part of the issue is that people who study this stuff are often hesitant to give too much detail in public because they don't want to give ideas to potentially nefarious actors before any protections are in place.
- randomdata 3y ago
  > I've heard plenty about realistic scenarios. Of course. Everyone has an opinion. Some of those opinions will end up be quite realistic, even if just by random chance. You don't have to be an expert to come up with right ideas sometimes. Hinton's vision of AI being used to steal identities is quite realistic. But that doesn't make him an expert. His opinion carries no more weight than any other random hobo on the street. > I think part of the issue is that people who study this stuff are often hesitant to give too much detail in public because they don't want to give ideas to potentially nefarious actors Is there no realistic scenario where the outcome is positive? Surely they could speak to that, at least. What if, say, AI progressed us to post-scarcity? Many apparent experts believe post-scarcity will lead us away from a lot of the nefarious activity you speak of.
  - danenania 3y ago
    Oh, I've heard plenty of discussion of positive scenarios as well, including post-scarcity. If you just look for a list of all the current AI tools and startups that are being built, you can get a pretty good sense of the potential across almost every economic/industrial sphere. Of course, many of these won't work out, but some will and it can give you an idea of what some of the specific benefits could be in the next 5-10 years. I'd say post-scarcity is generally a longer-term possibility unless you believe in a super-fast singularity (which I'm personally skeptical about). But many of the high risk uses are already possible or will become possible soon, so they are more front-of-mind I suppose.
    - randomdata 3y ago
      > I've heard plenty of discussion of positive scenarios as well, including post-scarcity. Everyone has an opinion, but who are the experts (in the subject matter, not some other thing) discussing it?
      - danenania 3y ago
        Check out Dwarkesh Patel’s podcast.
        randomdata 3y ago
        What makes him an expert in the subject matter? A cursory glance suggests that his background is in CS, not anything related to social or humanitarian issues. It is not completely impossible for someone to have expertise in more than one thing, but it is unusual as there is only so much time in the day and building expertise takes a lot of time.
        danenania 3y ago
        I don’t mean Dwarkesh himself, though he asks great questions. He’s had some very knowledgeable guests. The most recent episode with Paul Christiano has a lot of good discussion on all these topics. I’d suggest evaluating the arguments and ideas more on the merits rather than putting so much emphasis on authority and credentials. I get there can be value there, but no one is really an “expert” in this subject yet and anyone who claims to be probably has an angle.

danenania 3y ago

I guess my experience is different. I've heard plenty about realistic scenarios. It's out there if you look for it, or even if you just spend time thinking it through. Identity theft is far from the biggest danger even with current capabilities. Though to your point, I think part of the issue is that people who study this stuff are often hesitant to give too much detail in public because they don't want to give ideas to potentially nefarious actors before any protections are in place.

randomdata 3y ago
> I've heard plenty about realistic scenarios. Of course. Everyone has an opinion. Some of those opinions will end up be quite realistic, even if just by random chance. You don't have to be an expert to come up with right ideas sometimes. Hinton's vision of AI being used to steal identities is quite realistic. But that doesn't make him an expert. His opinion carries no more weight than any other random hobo on the street. > I think part of the issue is that people who study this stuff are often hesitant to give too much detail in public because they don't want to give ideas to potentially nefarious actors Is there no realistic scenario where the outcome is positive? Surely they could speak to that, at least. What if, say, AI progressed us to post-scarcity? Many apparent experts believe post-scarcity will lead us away from a lot of the nefarious activity you speak of.
- danenania 3y ago
  Oh, I've heard plenty of discussion of positive scenarios as well, including post-scarcity. If you just look for a list of all the current AI tools and startups that are being built, you can get a pretty good sense of the potential across almost every economic/industrial sphere. Of course, many of these won't work out, but some will and it can give you an idea of what some of the specific benefits could be in the next 5-10 years. I'd say post-scarcity is generally a longer-term possibility unless you believe in a super-fast singularity (which I'm personally skeptical about). But many of the high risk uses are already possible or will become possible soon, so they are more front-of-mind I suppose.
  - randomdata 3y ago
    > I've heard plenty of discussion of positive scenarios as well, including post-scarcity. Everyone has an opinion, but who are the experts (in the subject matter, not some other thing) discussing it?
    - danenania 3y ago
      Check out Dwarkesh Patel’s podcast.
      - randomdata 3y ago
        What makes him an expert in the subject matter? A cursory glance suggests that his background is in CS, not anything related to social or humanitarian issues. It is not completely impossible for someone to have expertise in more than one thing, but it is unusual as there is only so much time in the day and building expertise takes a lot of time.
        danenania 3y ago
        I don’t mean Dwarkesh himself, though he asks great questions. He’s had some very knowledgeable guests. The most recent episode with Paul Christiano has a lot of good discussion on all these topics. I’d suggest evaluating the arguments and ideas more on the merits rather than putting so much emphasis on authority and credentials. I get there can be value there, but no one is really an “expert” in this subject yet and anyone who claims to be probably has an angle.