4 ms·

The human brain is estimated at 2.5 Pb of storage [0]. Currently 1 Tb costs around $12.50 [1]. If this costs reduces by half roughly every two years, 2.5 Pb of

The human brain is estimated at 2.5 Pb of storage [0]. Currently 1 Tb costs around $12.50 [1]. If this costs reduces by half roughly every two years, 2.5 Pb of storage will be available for roughly $4k. At $4k and below, that means we essentially have an affordable desktop computer that has the storage capacity of the human brain. My guess is that there will be a spate of startups that offer real value using AI when the price is around $10k, but that's just a guess and we're already at around $30k for 2.5Pb of storage right now. [0] https://www.cnsnevada.com/what-is-the-memory-capacity-of-a-human-brain/ https://www.cnsnevada.com/what-is-the-memory-capacity-of-a-h... [1] https://jcmit.net/diskprice.htm https://jcmit.net/diskprice.htm

lm28469 3y ago
Unless you can replicate how the brain works you can have 10000000000Pb of storage it doesn't mean jack shit > A human can run at 40kmh, since decades cars can drive faster than 40kmh, hence cars are smarter than humans
- heavenlyblue 3y ago
  Additionally, our planet is smarter than human because the total amount of hard disk storage on it is larger than 2Pb (even those hard drives that are disconnected from power).
- abetusk 3y ago
  > Birds flap their wings to fly. Planes don't. Therefore planes can never fly. There were some implicit assumptions in my above post: * Human brains are physically realizable (there is no mind-body separation) * Human level intelligence is the result of a massively parallel computer running essentially simple algorithms on large data * Compute will follow the same Moore's law pattern Storage is taken as a representative metric. I argue that while storage is an insufficient condition, it's a necessary one. I agree that computation must follow suite but, to me at least, not only is the compute getting faster and cheaper, the core "fundamental algorithm" for intelligence are essentially already know and the limiting factor is the cost of storage and, to a lesser extent, compute.
  - lm28469 3y ago
    > I argue that while storage is an insufficient condition, it's a necessary one It also is by far the easiest thing to attain, given that all the other pre requisites would requires absolutely major ground breaking discoveries
  - true_religion 3y ago
    I’m not sure AGI needs Moores law to help it. Human beings are general intelligences and our form of computing runs on extremely slow and unreliable hardware. I feel if we could crack the algorithm behind AGI, we will develop hardware to do it more efficiently much like how crypto is now run on specialized hardware.

lm28469 3y ago

Unless you can replicate how the brain works you can have 10000000000Pb of storage it doesn't mean jack shit > A human can run at 40kmh, since decades cars can drive faster than 40kmh, hence cars are smarter than humans

heavenlyblue 3y ago
Additionally, our planet is smarter than human because the total amount of hard disk storage on it is larger than 2Pb (even those hard drives that are disconnected from power).
abetusk 3y ago
> Birds flap their wings to fly. Planes don't. Therefore planes can never fly. There were some implicit assumptions in my above post: * Human brains are physically realizable (there is no mind-body separation) * Human level intelligence is the result of a massively parallel computer running essentially simple algorithms on large data * Compute will follow the same Moore's law pattern Storage is taken as a representative metric. I argue that while storage is an insufficient condition, it's a necessary one. I agree that computation must follow suite but, to me at least, not only is the compute getting faster and cheaper, the core "fundamental algorithm" for intelligence are essentially already know and the limiting factor is the cost of storage and, to a lesser extent, compute.
- lm28469 3y ago
  > I argue that while storage is an insufficient condition, it's a necessary one It also is by far the easiest thing to attain, given that all the other pre requisites would requires absolutely major ground breaking discoveries
- true_religion 3y ago
  I’m not sure AGI needs Moores law to help it. Human beings are general intelligences and our form of computing runs on extremely slow and unreliable hardware. I feel if we could crack the algorithm behind AGI, we will develop hardware to do it more efficiently much like how crypto is now run on specialized hardware.