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Why would you need to predict the future to be convincing? Charismatic people aren't acting like oracles, they're just...being charming. They frame actions in w
by strken 3y ago
Why would you need to predict the future to be convincing? Charismatic people aren't acting like oracles, they're just...being charming. They frame actions in ways that make them look good, do little favours for you, stroke your ego, and otherwise have a good grasp of human social dynamics.
Sure, there's an aspect of understanding the other person, but chaos theory doesn't stop politicians from obtaining and keeping power.
- logicchains 3y ago>Why would you need to predict the future to be convincing? You need to be able to predict how people will react to your words.
- strken 3y agoSure, but that's not predicting the future to a high degree of certainty. People predict how others will react all the time. The most convincing humans are already very good at it, so we know it's possible to some degree. While I agree chaos theory puts an upper limit on how well someone can predict the future, there's no particular evidence that human ability is close to the limit. I think you're imagining some mastermind that has to get everything right or it dies, instead of a master politician or businessperson who's a few percentage points better than the existing competition and for whom the advantage compounds. Yes, Less Wrong is way too hysterical about everything, but charisma that's better than human is a problem. If you're convincing enough that all your business deals, legal arguments, political and ad campaigns, lobbying attempts, etc. are slightly better than the competition, then money "magically" flows your way.