>If only we were a lot smarter we'd know how. That's not true. Pricing and predicting in the real economy depends on information; for a given amount of informa

>If only we were a lot smarter we'd know how. That's not true. Pricing and predicting in the real economy depends on information; for a given amount of information, there are vastly diminishing returns for further intelligence. Because intelligence only allows predicting a bit further in future, as the complexity of predicting the future increases exponentially with lookahead distance; it's O(e^n). This is why hedge funds pay for things like satellite footage of oil tankers to predict changes in supply.