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> he's basically going to make top dollar until he's 65 There's no such guarantee in any of the professions.

SoftTalker 3y ago
True but it's likely, unless fully-autonomous commercial airliners are developed. There's a shortage of pilots as well, and unlike most other careers, they have to retire at 65 (or maybe younger?).
- sokoloff 3y ago
  They're one failed First Class Medical exam away from losing it.
- rvba 3y ago
  Even if autonomous aircraft are developed, will the "old" planes be converted? Could they be converted without tons of changes? Sounds unlikely.
  - patall 3y ago
    Doesn't necessarily matter when its rich countries (or their carriers) that buy the new planes and out of a sudden, pilots have the choice of flying for an indonesian island hopper or not at all.
  - Clamchop 3y ago
    Planes are typically in service for decades but if they could eliminate the pilots, that could very well change the calculus. But, public mistrust of a pilotless plane might very well put the kibosh on that for a long time. People have trouble trusting air travel as it is, doesn't matter if it's irrational, and they usually know that it is.
    - sfn42 3y ago
      Imagine a lottery where instead of winning, you die in a terrifying way. That's flying. You enter into an aluminium can, and from that point you are completely helpless, whatever happens. The only thing you can do if something goes wrong is assume the fetal position and hope. And yes, life is pretty much like that. You could get cancer or get hit by a car or a meteorite for that matter, but even these things feel more controlled. I can pay attention to my surroundings to avoid getting hit by a car. I can potentially treat cancer. I could probably not do much against a meteorite or gamma ray burst or whatever cosmic thing might happen but that stuff feels less real anyway. I agree that the fear of flying is somewhat irrational, but at the same time I think it's a valid fear especially in light of things like Russia shooting down passenger planes, the whole Boeing Max 8 thing etc.
esafak 3y ago
Especially with machine learning engineers automating lines of work away :)
1letterunixname 3y ago
There is by necessity, nuance, and specialization. But if someone wanted to be rich by capturing more of the value they could produce, it's highly unlikely as someone else's employee.

True but it's likely, unless fully-autonomous commercial airliners are developed. There's a shortage of pilots as well, and unlike most other careers, they have to retire at 65 (or maybe younger?).

sokoloff 3y ago
They're one failed First Class Medical exam away from losing it.
rvba 3y ago
Even if autonomous aircraft are developed, will the "old" planes be converted? Could they be converted without tons of changes? Sounds unlikely.
- patall 3y ago
  Doesn't necessarily matter when its rich countries (or their carriers) that buy the new planes and out of a sudden, pilots have the choice of flying for an indonesian island hopper or not at all.
- Clamchop 3y ago
  Planes are typically in service for decades but if they could eliminate the pilots, that could very well change the calculus. But, public mistrust of a pilotless plane might very well put the kibosh on that for a long time. People have trouble trusting air travel as it is, doesn't matter if it's irrational, and they usually know that it is.
  - sfn42 3y ago
    Imagine a lottery where instead of winning, you die in a terrifying way. That's flying. You enter into an aluminium can, and from that point you are completely helpless, whatever happens. The only thing you can do if something goes wrong is assume the fetal position and hope. And yes, life is pretty much like that. You could get cancer or get hit by a car or a meteorite for that matter, but even these things feel more controlled. I can pay attention to my surroundings to avoid getting hit by a car. I can potentially treat cancer. I could probably not do much against a meteorite or gamma ray burst or whatever cosmic thing might happen but that stuff feels less real anyway. I agree that the fear of flying is somewhat irrational, but at the same time I think it's a valid fear especially in light of things like Russia shooting down passenger planes, the whole Boeing Max 8 thing etc.

esafak 3y ago

Especially with machine learning engineers automating lines of work away :)

1letterunixname 3y ago

There is by necessity, nuance, and specialization. But if someone wanted to be rich by capturing more of the value they could produce, it's highly unlikely as someone else's employee.