5 ms·

Just a minor nit on the provinces, you excluded Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai which have province level status and almost 60 million in population combined, cl

by z2 3y ago

Just a minor nit on the provinces, you excluded Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai which have province level status and almost 60 million in population combined, close to Thailand's 70 million, and a weighted average HDI of 0.87. Heterogeneity is and perhaps will always be a thing for China, and part of the question is if the poor parts have any low hanging fruit left to mimic the success of the earlier-developed and now high HDI areas, or have those fruit withered by now.

alephnerd 3y ago
Good catch! I left Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin out due to the fact that they are governed differently than provinces, as they are under direct administration of the State Council and they are almost 100% urban. This makes them a bad comparison with Thailand as a whole. At a micro level, it might be interesting to compare BKK versus Beijing/Shanghai/Tianjin but Thailand allows free movement and domiciling, so it's not a great comparison. > the question is if the poor parts have any low hanging fruit left to mimic the success of the earlier-developed and now high HDI areas, or have those fruit withered by now It's a tough question and depends province to province. The provinces around Manchuria are probably all tapped out, but there might be some opportunity left in Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guangxi, but local and mid-level governance in China (like other middle income countries) sucks. I have written a lot about this in a previous life, but I'd rather not write a whole Econometrics white paper on HN
- z2 3y ago
  True! This is well outside of the original point, but Beijing and Tianjin are interesting cases and perhaps useful for regional aggregates because they are essentially black holes that have taken GDP and capital out of their surrounding areas, explaining some portion of the neighboring provinces' underperformance. Kind of like how New York state would look very different without New York City maybe? https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/beijing-mega-region-plan-aims-to-alleviate-poverty-but-some-are-wary https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/...
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Exactly! This can be seen first hand with Beijing+Tianjin versus Hebei. Those 2 cities were under direct State Council control so it was easier to push economic reforms versus a largely rural province like Hebei, plus they were close enough that it made sense for anyone half ambitious in Hebei to leave for the big city than to stay back. This is what happened in NY State as well with NYC and IL with Chicago. It's called the primate effect in economics.
    - rfoo 3y ago
      It would be interesting to compare Beijing+Hebei to Shanghai+Zhejiang+Jiangsu. I believe the primate effect works the same way, but Hebei is significantly poorer most likely due to Beijing getting too many preference in policy making. (e.g. to mitigate the air pollution in Beijing let's shutdown factories in surrounding area)
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        There's been some research into this in China (comparative development was in fact the late Lee Kequiang's speciality). The issue is, research into stuff like this and converting it into actionable policy is becoming difficult, as mid and lower level civil servants don't want to deviate from a literal definition of policies or their mandate as administrations have become much more vindictive due to the economic slowdown. Research like this ends up stepping on people's toes. http://www.kjjb.org/EN/abstract/abstract18771.shtml http://www.kjjb.org/EN/abstract/abstract18771.shtml http://www.progressingeography.com/EN/10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.01.006 http://www.progressingeography.com/EN/10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.0... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187705092200151X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187705092... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837718301339 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02648...
- gpetukhov 3y ago
  Where can I read more of your writings about China? You seem to have quite nuanced knowledge on the topic.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    In the archives of a respectable Econ and PoliSci department and Outlook Archives on the Hill from at most a decade ago. I left that space to return to Tech PM and Entrepreneurship because I also studied CS, nerded out about technology strategy, and didn't have a trust fund to afford DC on a staffer's salary. If interested, the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, the China Guiding Cases Project at Stanford Law, the Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics at UChicago, and Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab at MIT have all been working on the Rural-Urban Divide problem in Developing Countries. Chinese Policymakers tend to work with Stanford and Indian Policymakers tend to work with UChicago and MIT. Papers and books published by members of these centers would teach you all that you need to know about Developmental Economics (or at least enough for a pre-doc).

by z2 3y ago

alephnerd 3y ago

Good catch! I left Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin out due to the fact that they are governed differently than provinces, as they are under direct administration of the State Council and they are almost 100% urban. This makes them a bad comparison with Thailand as a whole. At a micro level, it might be interesting to compare BKK versus Beijing/Shanghai/Tianjin but Thailand allows free movement and domiciling, so it's not a great comparison. > the question is if the poor parts have any low hanging fruit left to mimic the success of the earlier-developed and now high HDI areas, or have those fruit withered by now It's a tough question and depends province to province. The provinces around Manchuria are probably all tapped out, but there might be some opportunity left in Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guangxi, but local and mid-level governance in China (like other middle income countries) sucks. I have written a lot about this in a previous life, but I'd rather not write a whole Econometrics white paper on HN

z2 3y ago
True! This is well outside of the original point, but Beijing and Tianjin are interesting cases and perhaps useful for regional aggregates because they are essentially black holes that have taken GDP and capital out of their surrounding areas, explaining some portion of the neighboring provinces' underperformance. Kind of like how New York state would look very different without New York City maybe? https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/beijing-mega-region-plan-aims-to-alleviate-poverty-but-some-are-wary https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/...
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Exactly! This can be seen first hand with Beijing+Tianjin versus Hebei. Those 2 cities were under direct State Council control so it was easier to push economic reforms versus a largely rural province like Hebei, plus they were close enough that it made sense for anyone half ambitious in Hebei to leave for the big city than to stay back. This is what happened in NY State as well with NYC and IL with Chicago. It's called the primate effect in economics.
  - rfoo 3y ago
    It would be interesting to compare Beijing+Hebei to Shanghai+Zhejiang+Jiangsu. I believe the primate effect works the same way, but Hebei is significantly poorer most likely due to Beijing getting too many preference in policy making. (e.g. to mitigate the air pollution in Beijing let's shutdown factories in surrounding area)
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      There's been some research into this in China (comparative development was in fact the late Lee Kequiang's speciality). The issue is, research into stuff like this and converting it into actionable policy is becoming difficult, as mid and lower level civil servants don't want to deviate from a literal definition of policies or their mandate as administrations have become much more vindictive due to the economic slowdown. Research like this ends up stepping on people's toes. http://www.kjjb.org/EN/abstract/abstract18771.shtml http://www.kjjb.org/EN/abstract/abstract18771.shtml http://www.progressingeography.com/EN/10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.01.006 http://www.progressingeography.com/EN/10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.0... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187705092200151X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187705092... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837718301339 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02648...
gpetukhov 3y ago
Where can I read more of your writings about China? You seem to have quite nuanced knowledge on the topic.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  In the archives of a respectable Econ and PoliSci department and Outlook Archives on the Hill from at most a decade ago. I left that space to return to Tech PM and Entrepreneurship because I also studied CS, nerded out about technology strategy, and didn't have a trust fund to afford DC on a staffer's salary. If interested, the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, the China Guiding Cases Project at Stanford Law, the Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics at UChicago, and Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab at MIT have all been working on the Rural-Urban Divide problem in Developing Countries. Chinese Policymakers tend to work with Stanford and Indian Policymakers tend to work with UChicago and MIT. Papers and books published by members of these centers would teach you all that you need to know about Developmental Economics (or at least enough for a pre-doc).