5 ms·

> the average Thai in 2023 has a better QoL than the average Chinese in 2023 surprising if true How is that? China has overly concentrated wealth, basically?

csomar 3y ago
Keyword here is average. Thailand is pretty developed though they do have serious problems.
alephnerd 3y ago
The HDI of Thailand in 2023 is 0.802 while that of the PRC is 0.768. The HDI of the poorest region of Thailand (Northeast Thailand/Isan) is 0.780. The only provinces in Mainland China that have a comparable HDI are Zhejiang, Liaoang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu. Every other province of China has a lower HDI than the poorest province of Thailand. The only provinces in China that can match Thailand's HDI are Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong yet still lag behind Bangkok region. The average life expectancy in China still lags by 1-2 years compared to Thailand. The median income in Thailand is around $7,000 [0] versus around $4,000 [1] in China > How is that? China has overly concentrated wealth, basically? Kinda. The Chinese development story is amazing. China basically went from undeveloped in 1990 to middle income by 2020. In 1 generation that is an amazing transformation. Yet, the low hanging fruits of reform and development have largely been harvested. Now comes the hard part - building a welfare system, reforming business and taxation law, tamping down on corruption, investing in human capital. Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia were all in a similar position in the 1990s during the Asian Financial Boom (caused by Japan's stagflation) and the subsequent Crash. South Korea was able to develop by working on the hard part above for a generation, but internal poltical strife in Thailand and Malaysia caused them both to fall behind their peer. It takes around 2-3 generations to actually go from undeveloped to developed. Some countries can do it in 1.5-2 generations, but then they are still stuck with jurisdictional bad practices (SK, Israel, and Poland are notable examples). [0] - http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx [1] - http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t20220118_1826649.html http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t2022011...
- z2 3y ago
  Just a minor nit on the provinces, you excluded Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai which have province level status and almost 60 million in population combined, close to Thailand's 70 million, and a weighted average HDI of 0.87. Heterogeneity is and perhaps will always be a thing for China, and part of the question is if the poor parts have any low hanging fruit left to mimic the success of the earlier-developed and now high HDI areas, or have those fruit withered by now.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Good catch! I left Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin out due to the fact that they are governed differently than provinces, as they are under direct administration of the State Council and they are almost 100% urban. This makes them a bad comparison with Thailand as a whole. At a micro level, it might be interesting to compare BKK versus Beijing/Shanghai/Tianjin but Thailand allows free movement and domiciling, so it's not a great comparison. > the question is if the poor parts have any low hanging fruit left to mimic the success of the earlier-developed and now high HDI areas, or have those fruit withered by now It's a tough question and depends province to province. The provinces around Manchuria are probably all tapped out, but there might be some opportunity left in Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guangxi, but local and mid-level governance in China (like other middle income countries) sucks. I have written a lot about this in a previous life, but I'd rather not write a whole Econometrics white paper on HN
    - z2 3y ago
      True! This is well outside of the original point, but Beijing and Tianjin are interesting cases and perhaps useful for regional aggregates because they are essentially black holes that have taken GDP and capital out of their surrounding areas, explaining some portion of the neighboring provinces' underperformance. Kind of like how New York state would look very different without New York City maybe? https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/beijing-mega-region-plan-aims-to-alleviate-poverty-but-some-are-wary https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/...
jldugger 3y ago
Thailand's GDP per capita was 7,066.19 in 2019. China's is 12,556.33. However, the Chinese GDP number is widely known to be inflated[1]. Even Federal Reserve has weighed in on the question[2]. Thailand is not exactly a free place, but the political leadership isn't using economic growth reason for their continued existence and then setting annual targets for every province and city. But what probably really makes up the difference is the purchasing power parity[3]. If I'm reading that right, Thailand has a PPP of 3x China. That will more than make up for any noise in GDP, population numbers, or GINI coefficients. [1]: https://www.marketplace.org/2023/07/17/is-gdp-still-a-useful-gauge-of-chinas-economy/ https://www.marketplace.org/2023/07/17/is-gdp-still-a-useful... [2]: https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-just-smoke-and-mirrors https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s... [3]:
- alephnerd 3y ago
  I will repeat this a million times on HN until I die - GDP PER CAPITA AND GDP PPP PER CAPITA IN ISOLATION ARE NOT RELEVANT METRICS TO USE FOR HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT. They are productivity metrics (as in how much shit can country X produce versus country Y). Per Capita literally means total population, so GDP Per Capita is (Total Production in USD) / (Total Population). Yet we all know there is no society in the world where every man, woman, and child earns the same exact amount of money. Use a mix of Gini coefficient, median income, health indicators, education indicators, etc to track development.
  - jldugger 3y ago
    Is median income even relevant in places with massive informal economies?
- blackwateragent 3y ago
  > Thailand has a PPP of 3x China. Where are you getting this? I'm no economist, but based on a simple search and data from wikipedia [1], your number seems wildly incorrect. > However, the Chinese GDP number is widely known to be inflated And BIS (Bank of International settlements) notes [2] "There are studies that contradict these results and find that the official data is roughly correct and may even understate the "true" economic growth (e.g. Holz, 2006a, 2006b; Clark et al., 2017a, 2017b; Perkins and Rawski, 2008)." GDP is just one number that is inaccurate everywhere, it's more of a 'pulse'. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)... [2] https://www.bis.org/publ/work925.htm https://www.bis.org/publ/work925.htm

csomar 3y ago

Keyword here is average. Thailand is pretty developed though they do have serious problems.

alephnerd 3y ago

The HDI of Thailand in 2023 is 0.802 while that of the PRC is 0.768. The HDI of the poorest region of Thailand (Northeast Thailand/Isan) is 0.780. The only provinces in Mainland China that have a comparable HDI are Zhejiang, Liaoang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu. Every other province of China has a lower HDI than the poorest province of Thailand. The only provinces in China that can match Thailand's HDI are Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong yet still lag behind Bangkok region. The average life expectancy in China still lags by 1-2 years compared to Thailand. The median income in Thailand is around $7,000 [0] versus around $4,000 [1] in China > How is that? China has overly concentrated wealth, basically? Kinda. The Chinese development story is amazing. China basically went from undeveloped in 1990 to middle income by 2020. In 1 generation that is an amazing transformation. Yet, the low hanging fruits of reform and development have largely been harvested. Now comes the hard part - building a welfare system, reforming business and taxation law, tamping down on corruption, investing in human capital. Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia were all in a similar position in the 1990s during the Asian Financial Boom (caused by Japan's stagflation) and the subsequent Crash. South Korea was able to develop by working on the hard part above for a generation, but internal poltical strife in Thailand and Malaysia caused them both to fall behind their peer. It takes around 2-3 generations to actually go from undeveloped to developed. Some countries can do it in 1.5-2 generations, but then they are still stuck with jurisdictional bad practices (SK, Israel, and Poland are notable examples). [0] - http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/th/08.aspx [1] - http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t20220118_1826649.html http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202201/t2022011...

z2 3y ago
Just a minor nit on the provinces, you excluded Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai which have province level status and almost 60 million in population combined, close to Thailand's 70 million, and a weighted average HDI of 0.87. Heterogeneity is and perhaps will always be a thing for China, and part of the question is if the poor parts have any low hanging fruit left to mimic the success of the earlier-developed and now high HDI areas, or have those fruit withered by now.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Good catch! I left Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin out due to the fact that they are governed differently than provinces, as they are under direct administration of the State Council and they are almost 100% urban. This makes them a bad comparison with Thailand as a whole. At a micro level, it might be interesting to compare BKK versus Beijing/Shanghai/Tianjin but Thailand allows free movement and domiciling, so it's not a great comparison. > the question is if the poor parts have any low hanging fruit left to mimic the success of the earlier-developed and now high HDI areas, or have those fruit withered by now It's a tough question and depends province to province. The provinces around Manchuria are probably all tapped out, but there might be some opportunity left in Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guangxi, but local and mid-level governance in China (like other middle income countries) sucks. I have written a lot about this in a previous life, but I'd rather not write a whole Econometrics white paper on HN
  - z2 3y ago
    True! This is well outside of the original point, but Beijing and Tianjin are interesting cases and perhaps useful for regional aggregates because they are essentially black holes that have taken GDP and capital out of their surrounding areas, explaining some portion of the neighboring provinces' underperformance. Kind of like how New York state would look very different without New York City maybe? https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/beijing-mega-region-plan-aims-to-alleviate-poverty-but-some-are-wary https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/...

jldugger 3y ago

Thailand's GDP per capita was 7,066.19 in 2019. China's is 12,556.33. However, the Chinese GDP number is widely known to be inflated[1]. Even Federal Reserve has weighed in on the question[2]. Thailand is not exactly a free place, but the political leadership isn't using economic growth reason for their continued existence and then setting annual targets for every province and city. But what probably really makes up the difference is the purchasing power parity[3]. If I'm reading that right, Thailand has a PPP of 3x China. That will more than make up for any noise in GDP, population numbers, or GINI coefficients. [1]: https://www.marketplace.org/2023/07/17/is-gdp-still-a-useful-gauge-of-chinas-economy/ https://www.marketplace.org/2023/07/17/is-gdp-still-a-useful... [2]: https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-just-smoke-and-mirrors https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s... [3]:

alephnerd 3y ago
I will repeat this a million times on HN until I die - GDP PER CAPITA AND GDP PPP PER CAPITA IN ISOLATION ARE NOT RELEVANT METRICS TO USE FOR HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT. They are productivity metrics (as in how much shit can country X produce versus country Y). Per Capita literally means total population, so GDP Per Capita is (Total Production in USD) / (Total Population). Yet we all know there is no society in the world where every man, woman, and child earns the same exact amount of money. Use a mix of Gini coefficient, median income, health indicators, education indicators, etc to track development.
- jldugger 3y ago
  Is median income even relevant in places with massive informal economies?
blackwateragent 3y ago
> Thailand has a PPP of 3x China. Where are you getting this? I'm no economist, but based on a simple search and data from wikipedia [1], your number seems wildly incorrect. > However, the Chinese GDP number is widely known to be inflated And BIS (Bank of International settlements) notes [2] "There are studies that contradict these results and find that the official data is roughly correct and may even understate the "true" economic growth (e.g. Holz, 2006a, 2006b; Clark et al., 2017a, 2017b; Perkins and Rawski, 2008)." GDP is just one number that is inaccurate everywhere, it's more of a 'pulse'. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)... [2] https://www.bis.org/publ/work925.htm https://www.bis.org/publ/work925.htm