>https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-bef... Metaculus hasn't moved a

>https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-bef... Metaculus hasn't moved at all. There's some recent comments debating why this is, and some posting reasons to think the market should move upwards. My guess is this is some evidence for no WWIII, though metaculus can easily be assumed to be at least 10% off at any given moment, given that it's play money and relies on the interest of it's users. And they might not be interested in using their play money on long-term predictions. The needle has moved on nuclear detonation by 2050: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-... I'm no geopolitics expert, there might be a reason why nukes went up but not WWIII. Or it might just be that nukes has one-third the activity and so is more moveable. Not sure which of the two to take more seriously.