4 ms·
> Couldn't this easily be solved with a WW3 prediction market? Why try to find proxies for such an event when one could speculate on the outcome directly? It's
by sgjohnson 3y ago
> Couldn't this easily be solved with a WW3 prediction market? Why try to find proxies for such an event when one could speculate on the outcome directly? It's simply a more efficient market.
Deep OTM calls on VIX (ETF ticker $UVXY) would be something similar to that. If WW3 happens, VIX will skyrocket.
Furthest expiry available as of today for $UVXY options is Jan 16, 2026.
- gpderetta 3y agoThe counterparty risk would also skyrocket. Although you could try to collect your dues at the rubbles of the clearing house