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Couldn't this easily be solved with a WW3 prediction market? Why try to find proxies for such an event when one could speculate on the outcome directly? It's si
by kelseyfrog 3y ago
Couldn't this easily be solved with a WW3 prediction market? Why try to find proxies for such an event when one could speculate on the outcome directly? It's simply a more efficient market.
- sgjohnson 3y ago> Couldn't this easily be solved with a WW3 prediction market? Why try to find proxies for such an event when one could speculate on the outcome directly? It's simply a more efficient market. Deep OTM calls on VIX (ETF ticker $UVXY) would be something similar to that. If WW3 happens, VIX will skyrocket. Furthest expiry available as of today for $UVXY options is Jan 16, 2026.
- gpderetta 3y agoThe counterparty risk would also skyrocket. Although you could try to collect your dues at the rubbles of the clearing house
- crazygringo 3y agoI think a prediction market would suffer from the same problem as regular markets: if everyone dies in a fiery nuclear conflagration, nobody's going to collect on either side. By definition, a prediction market doesn't work if one side is betting on the prediction market ceasing to exist.