I wonder when people stop searching for holy grail of simple, quick, universal and always effective hiring method. Even probation doesn't provide you with 100%

I wonder when people stop searching for holy grail of simple, quick, universal and always effective hiring method. Even probation doesn't provide you with 100% accuracy of performance prediction. And everything else you'll use will be less effective. The real challenge is to make a proper, conscious choice of the tool taking into account the job itself (and its context) as well as balance between accuracy and resources spent. The discussions like this remind me discussions about which programming language is the best. Is there answer for such question? :)