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I’m quite surprised it’s dropped “only” by 55%. Musk made the offer just before a big drop in valuation of tech companies. Even if Twitter revenue remained sta

I’m quite surprised it’s dropped “only” by 55%. Musk made the offer just before a big drop in valuation of tech companies. Even if Twitter revenue remained stable it probably wouldn’t be worth $44B Musk paid. With a drop in usage, drop in ads, controversy around the bots, misinformation, failure of Twitter Blue, I would expect that the actual value is quite below the said $19B. Maybe the cost saving measures partially offset the drop in revenue? They crippled functionality for guest users quite a lot (I’m not logged in on my work laptop and I can’t see quote tweets nor replies), their workforce is 5x smaller, it seems their costs are way lower than before.

silverbax88 3y ago
Agreed. It wasn't worth $44B when he bought it, so I'm not sure why the NY Times would even use that number in any way. If I pay someone $100,000 for a stick they found on the side of the road, it doesn't make that stick worth $100k. I doubt Twitter was worth $19B even before Musk overpaid for it. It was a 15 year old company that couldn't make money.
- omarfarooq 3y ago
  > If I pay someone $100,000 for a stick they found on the side of the road, it doesn't make that stick worth $100k. So why did you pay $100,000?
  - klyrs 3y ago
    This line of thinking is so basic. Say I bought a lotto ticket for $5. Does that mean it's worth $5?
    - the_gastropod 3y ago
      Say I bought this cabbage... When you bought that $5 lotto ticket, it was worth $5. After the lotto is drawn, it's either worth approximately nothing or potentially a lot more than $5.
- fidotron 3y ago
  > It wasn't worth $44B when he bought it, so I'm not sure why the NY Times would even use that number in any way. If I pay someone $100,000 for a stick they found on the side of the road, it doesn't make that stick worth $100k. This is almost exactly how accounting works. Whenever they want to decide how much something is worth the answer is the most someone else would pay for it. Doesn't make it less insane, especially in the presence of idiots with huge sums of money.
- mikeyouse 3y ago
  A stick that someone paid $100k for is absolutely a stick worth $100k - what people are willing to pay for things is how we assign them value. Twitter's stock was trading at ~$45/share before any rumors of acquisition - so somewhere around $35B - they'd made roughly $1B in net income in the year prior to the buyout. This meme about them "not making money" is so silly. Aside from a one-time settlement in 2020, Twitter had a very stable and fairly profitable business - hence why Elon had to pay $44 Billion to buy the company from the existing shareholders. https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-incom...
  - aranchelk 3y ago
    You could make that argument except this is a stick someone said he’d pay $100k for to get attention, then the courts forced him follow through. Slightly different.
    - mikeyouse 3y ago
      More like someone wrote a contract to buy a stick for $100k, took multiple steps including hiring bankers to raise financing to buy the stick for $100k, threatened to sue the seller of the stick if they didn't sell it to him for $100k and then eventually tried to back out..
  - wredue 3y ago
    >twitters stock was trading for $45 a charge before any rumor of acquisition What is this, alternate reality land? It was trading for $16 (albeit this was a low point) a share when Musk started his pump and dump scheme, which rocketed the value to 45 a share, which is the point that Musk decided he doesn’t want it and also began proceedings to dump stock. There were ATH in the $45 range, but TWTR was on a clear downward trend.
    - mikeyouse 3y ago
      You should maybe look at a stock chart instead of making silly, easily disprovable statements from memory like "ATH in the $45 range"? It nearly reached $80 in 2021... It spent several months above $60/share. https://imgur.com/a/VsoZ7mD https://imgur.com/a/VsoZ7mD I don't have quick access to share prices older than Jan 1st 2019 - but from that date through the date of Elon's first share purchase on Jan 31st, 2022 - Twitter's average price was was $44/share.
ribosometronome 3y ago
>Musk made the offer just before a big drop in valuation of tech companies. Aren't most tech companies back near their ATHs? MSFT is above what it before that drop. Meta had the most notable crash but they're only ~20% lower than pre-that drop.

silverbax88 3y ago

Agreed. It wasn't worth $44B when he bought it, so I'm not sure why the NY Times would even use that number in any way. If I pay someone $100,000 for a stick they found on the side of the road, it doesn't make that stick worth $100k. I doubt Twitter was worth $19B even before Musk overpaid for it. It was a 15 year old company that couldn't make money.

omarfarooq 3y ago
> If I pay someone $100,000 for a stick they found on the side of the road, it doesn't make that stick worth $100k. So why did you pay $100,000?
- klyrs 3y ago
  This line of thinking is so basic. Say I bought a lotto ticket for $5. Does that mean it's worth $5?
  - the_gastropod 3y ago
    Say I bought this cabbage... When you bought that $5 lotto ticket, it was worth $5. After the lotto is drawn, it's either worth approximately nothing or potentially a lot more than $5.
fidotron 3y ago
> It wasn't worth $44B when he bought it, so I'm not sure why the NY Times would even use that number in any way. If I pay someone $100,000 for a stick they found on the side of the road, it doesn't make that stick worth $100k. This is almost exactly how accounting works. Whenever they want to decide how much something is worth the answer is the most someone else would pay for it. Doesn't make it less insane, especially in the presence of idiots with huge sums of money.
mikeyouse 3y ago
A stick that someone paid $100k for is absolutely a stick worth $100k - what people are willing to pay for things is how we assign them value. Twitter's stock was trading at ~$45/share before any rumors of acquisition - so somewhere around $35B - they'd made roughly $1B in net income in the year prior to the buyout. This meme about them "not making money" is so silly. Aside from a one-time settlement in 2020, Twitter had a very stable and fairly profitable business - hence why Elon had to pay $44 Billion to buy the company from the existing shareholders. https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-incom...
- aranchelk 3y ago
  You could make that argument except this is a stick someone said he’d pay $100k for to get attention, then the courts forced him follow through. Slightly different.
  - mikeyouse 3y ago
    More like someone wrote a contract to buy a stick for $100k, took multiple steps including hiring bankers to raise financing to buy the stick for $100k, threatened to sue the seller of the stick if they didn't sell it to him for $100k and then eventually tried to back out..
- wredue 3y ago
  >twitters stock was trading for $45 a charge before any rumor of acquisition What is this, alternate reality land? It was trading for $16 (albeit this was a low point) a share when Musk started his pump and dump scheme, which rocketed the value to 45 a share, which is the point that Musk decided he doesn’t want it and also began proceedings to dump stock. There were ATH in the $45 range, but TWTR was on a clear downward trend.
  - mikeyouse 3y ago
    You should maybe look at a stock chart instead of making silly, easily disprovable statements from memory like "ATH in the $45 range"? It nearly reached $80 in 2021... It spent several months above $60/share. https://imgur.com/a/VsoZ7mD https://imgur.com/a/VsoZ7mD I don't have quick access to share prices older than Jan 1st 2019 - but from that date through the date of Elon's first share purchase on Jan 31st, 2022 - Twitter's average price was was $44/share.

ribosometronome 3y ago

>Musk made the offer just before a big drop in valuation of tech companies. Aren't most tech companies back near their ATHs? MSFT is above what it before that drop. Meta had the most notable crash but they're only ~20% lower than pre-that drop.