4 ms·
You are confusing two different things. Most of the models show that the worst of the worst impacts are a few decades down the road, at which point most comment
by qqqwerty 3y ago
You are confusing two different things. Most of the models show that the worst of the worst impacts are a few decades down the road, at which point most commentators on this site will either be very old or dead. But there is active debate about how soon we need to act to prevent those bad things from happening. Some people seem to think we have time, and that a gradual reduction in emissions will be sufficient. But more recently, concerns about tipping points and feedback loops is pointing to a scenario where we may have little time left or may have even passed the point of no return, to prevent some worst case scenarios.
So yeah, saying that climate change will be really bad in 30-50 years, and also saying that we have less than 5-10 years to prevent it are not incompatible with each other. I hope that clarifies it for you.
Moreover, climate modeling is hard. While most scientists agree that climate change is caused by man made emissions, there is still a lot of debate as to how much time we have and how bad it will be. So if you are seeing contradictory headlines, that's because the science is a work in progress. If that bothers you, maybe just ignore the headlines for now and understand that we will never have 100% certainty about how long or how bad or when things will happen, but we do know the general direction of where things are headed and we do know that we need to act soon.
- lproven 3y ago> Most of the models show that the worst of the worst impacts are a few decades down the road You're out of date. It's much, much worse than that now.
- qqqwerty 3y agoNo I am not. "worst of the worst" was intentionally vague. We are dealing with probabilities. There is a small chance We could hit a tipping point tomorrow and things could spiral out of control. Or a dampening effect could emerge that we did not account for that could delay things for a while. It is hard to overstate just how uncertain things are. Predicting the future is hard. But drastic sea level rise is almost certainly a few decades away, most models predict it won't get really bad till the end of the century. And things like heat stress or hurricane frequency are all likely to increase, but it will be a few decades before they make certain areas uninhabitable. And for the record, I don't think we are taking this issue seriously enough. Even if the most likely outcome is a slow "boiling the frog" type of scenario, if there is even a 1% chance that a series of tipping points could result in cataclysmic climate catastrophe (which I believe to be the case), then we should absolutely be prioritizing this issue.