Thank you for that correction and history. I got it from Tetlock, and didn't realize that his applying it to intellectuals wasn't original to him. I also previ

Thank you for that correction and history. I got it from Tetlock, and didn't realize that his applying it to intellectuals wasn't original to him. I also previously knew about it from Archilochus. Regardless, it is a useful insight. We usually shouldn't trust talking heads who seem certain. And the exemplar that I hold in my mind was Karl Rove's 2012 meltdown as he refused to question his certainty that Romney would win: https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/07/164586847/video-an-awkward-moment-as-karl-rove-objects-to-foxs-ohio-call https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/07/16458...