4 ms·

Just listened to half of an interview (the interview is long, and it's now bedtime) of John Gray. I think you'd class him as a fox, but perhaps he's more of a

Just listened to half of an interview (the interview is long, and it's now bedtime) of John Gray. I think you'd class him as a fox, but perhaps he's more of a badger. Digs deep and wide into history to interpret the present and plot the future. Asks "what's similar and what's different, what's permanent and what's ephemeral?" Not afraid of being unpopular at the time. Some certainty is required when everyone is saying you're wrong, and is justified when ten years later they're saying that what you said ten years ago is obvious. That said, while he's solid on geopolitics snd the larger systems we are subject to, I wouldn't listen to him about what's happening with dating or something like that.

RationalDino 3y ago
The hedgehog/fox classification isn't mine, it is Philip Tetlock's. As is the data about pundits showing what the outcome is. See https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/tetlock/ https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/tetlock/. But I agree that it is not a perfect distinction. For example, Malcolm Gladwell writes on such a variety of things and viewpoints that he can't be a hedgehog. But he pursues a good story over what what is true, and therefore isn't very reliable. By contrast Nate Silver really likes to go to his statistics toolset. But I would call him a fox. However I think there is something to Tetlock's division. And I think my theory connecting certainty to lacking intellectual integrity has a lot to do with it.
- 5040 3y ago
  >The hedgehog/fox classification isn't mine, it is Philip Tetlock's I know it from Isaiah Berlin, but it looks like he took it from Archilochus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox
  - RationalDino 3y ago
    Thank you for that correction and history. I got it from Tetlock, and didn't realize that his applying it to intellectuals wasn't original to him. I also previously knew about it from Archilochus. Regardless, it is a useful insight. We usually shouldn't trust talking heads who seem certain. And the exemplar that I hold in my mind was Karl Rove's 2012 meltdown as he refused to question his certainty that Romney would win: https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/07/164586847/video-an-awkward-moment-as-karl-rove-objects-to-foxs-ohio-call https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/07/16458...

RationalDino 3y ago

The hedgehog/fox classification isn't mine, it is Philip Tetlock's. As is the data about pundits showing what the outcome is. See https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/tetlock/ https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/tetlock/. But I agree that it is not a perfect distinction. For example, Malcolm Gladwell writes on such a variety of things and viewpoints that he can't be a hedgehog. But he pursues a good story over what what is true, and therefore isn't very reliable. By contrast Nate Silver really likes to go to his statistics toolset. But I would call him a fox. However I think there is something to Tetlock's division. And I think my theory connecting certainty to lacking intellectual integrity has a lot to do with it.

5040 3y ago
>The hedgehog/fox classification isn't mine, it is Philip Tetlock's I know it from Isaiah Berlin, but it looks like he took it from Archilochus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox
- RationalDino 3y ago
  Thank you for that correction and history. I got it from Tetlock, and didn't realize that his applying it to intellectuals wasn't original to him. I also previously knew about it from Archilochus. Regardless, it is a useful insight. We usually shouldn't trust talking heads who seem certain. And the exemplar that I hold in my mind was Karl Rove's 2012 meltdown as he refused to question his certainty that Romney would win: https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/07/164586847/video-an-awkward-moment-as-karl-rove-objects-to-foxs-ohio-call https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/07/16458...