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Sales were up, but what about profits? Retailers cut costs like never before, and while sales are up, if you have an item that costs $4 to make and sell five of

Sales were up, but what about profits? Retailers cut costs like never before, and while sales are up, if you have an item that costs $4 to make and sell five of them at $5 a pop, sales are up but profits are down relative to selling four items at $6, as long as you can still sell the fifth later. And I guess that's the key this year - can retailers sell more after Black Friday, or will it represent an abnormally large percentage of holiday season spending?

ojbyrne 18y ago
In my opinion, the financial crisis is (hopefully/mostly/maybe) over, and this is now a consumer-led problem, led by people who are scared about losing their job. But those who still have jobs have noticed that declining interest rates and declining gas prices have given them more money than they had 3 months ago, and are cautiously spending some. The near-constant drum beat of pessimism seems to be the main headwind. I speak from personal experience here, I'm in an area where I could lose my job if we all stop spending, but it hasn't happened yet. But I'm making the best money of my life. And the Dow has a five-day winning streak (thank goodness for small good things) and suddenly there's a good retail report from the US. Let's dream of good things.
- DenisM 18y ago
  In my opinion, the financial crisis is (hopefully/mostly/maybe) over What data do you base your opinion on? Or is it meant to express your hopes rather than perception?
  - ojbyrne 18y ago
    I mentioned that the dow is up 5 days in a row. Good retail report from the US. The general perception that most people overcompensate - that fear is the primary emotion in work right now. My paycheck. My net worth. Interest Rates. Gas prices. Spent the weekend in Montreal, and there were crowds everywhere. The feeling that while the US is the sick man of the world, we're all a lot less dependent on the US than we were even a year ago. Several people expressing the same opinion to me - that it's a US problem (including americans who had come to Montreal for the primary purpose of partying, secondary purpose of shopping). My paycheck. My net worth. That I booked 2 more trips this weekend (home for Christmas, vacation in February). I'm not an economist, but I'm optimistic based on my own bank account. And I've got validation from other people around me, who have the same (rapidly growing) bank accounts. And in general, I'm a contrarian. I was at the center of Web 2.0, and my general perception was that it was almost entirely fake. I'm suddenly optimistic, because all the fakesters have been exposed. That enough?
    - DenisM 18y ago
      The DOW growing for 5 days does not mean anything - it can go up for 5 weeks in the middle of a depression: http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears Most of the rest of your data is all at micro level - you and a few friends. In any climate there is someone who is doing well, and while this single data point is important to you it's not really meaningful for me. I'm just checking to make sure I didn't miss any macro signs of recovery. This retail report is a bit premature.
      - ojbyrne 18y ago
        At this point, it's all about pessimism. It sounds like you're right in the heart of it. Probably somewhere on the east coast of the US. Me I'm not there. I'm going to go blow a few grand.
  - mynameishere 18y ago
    The best stat to go on is here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND It gives you a rough idea of the health of the credit markets. TARP actually helped quite a bit, but it's been inching up over the past few days (up==bad) at the same time the markets have been going up. "Suckers' market" is what I think, and yet I made a few conservative purchases. Safe money remains firmly on the treasuries. Here's the only thing I know: Nobody knows. The more important the chart is (like the DJIA) the more it represents prophecy than reality.
    - DenisM 18y ago
      Thanks for the chart, I learned something new today. Looking at the five year chart I wouldn't call today's situation normal. TED spread is at 2 now and it's been at 4.5 at the peak of the crisis, at 1 throughout last year and at 0.5 before that. Better than worst, but worse than any other recent time since 1987. Much of the interbank trust sits on the health of the mortgages, and whether the worst in there is priced in or not is unclear. I have couple of arguments towards the worst being still ahead - a) while subprime ARMs are over, option ARMs have not begun to reset yet[1] b) mortgages issued later in the bubble were of lower quality than early mortgages(accroding to my common sense) c) it's unclear when synthetic mortgages come due - it's possible that they have already fallen apart (hence the acute crisis of trust) or they might be the last shoe to drop. And treasuries are only secure if dollar is secure. The recen run-up in dollar has no fundamnetals behind it other than delveraging, so once that's over it's bound to tank pulverising the real wealth stored in the treasuries. It's a fun time - I can't think of any safe assets right now. [1] see chart in here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5047.html http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5047.html
  - iamdave 18y ago
    What data do you base your opinion on? Or is it meant to express your hopes rather than perception? The most crucial words of what he said: "in my opinion"
    - DenisM 18y ago
      Well, there are opinions and then there are opinions. I'm trying to differentiate opinions of different kinds: 1) "there is data which I analyzed into an opinion" 2) "there is an anecdote which I analyzed into an opinion" and 3) "there is my wish which I turned into opinion".

ojbyrne 18y ago

In my opinion, the financial crisis is (hopefully/mostly/maybe) over, and this is now a consumer-led problem, led by people who are scared about losing their job. But those who still have jobs have noticed that declining interest rates and declining gas prices have given them more money than they had 3 months ago, and are cautiously spending some. The near-constant drum beat of pessimism seems to be the main headwind. I speak from personal experience here, I'm in an area where I could lose my job if we all stop spending, but it hasn't happened yet. But I'm making the best money of my life. And the Dow has a five-day winning streak (thank goodness for small good things) and suddenly there's a good retail report from the US. Let's dream of good things.

DenisM 18y ago
In my opinion, the financial crisis is (hopefully/mostly/maybe) over What data do you base your opinion on? Or is it meant to express your hopes rather than perception?
- ojbyrne 18y ago
  I mentioned that the dow is up 5 days in a row. Good retail report from the US. The general perception that most people overcompensate - that fear is the primary emotion in work right now. My paycheck. My net worth. Interest Rates. Gas prices. Spent the weekend in Montreal, and there were crowds everywhere. The feeling that while the US is the sick man of the world, we're all a lot less dependent on the US than we were even a year ago. Several people expressing the same opinion to me - that it's a US problem (including americans who had come to Montreal for the primary purpose of partying, secondary purpose of shopping). My paycheck. My net worth. That I booked 2 more trips this weekend (home for Christmas, vacation in February). I'm not an economist, but I'm optimistic based on my own bank account. And I've got validation from other people around me, who have the same (rapidly growing) bank accounts. And in general, I'm a contrarian. I was at the center of Web 2.0, and my general perception was that it was almost entirely fake. I'm suddenly optimistic, because all the fakesters have been exposed. That enough?
  - DenisM 18y ago
    The DOW growing for 5 days does not mean anything - it can go up for 5 weeks in the middle of a depression: http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?four-bears Most of the rest of your data is all at micro level - you and a few friends. In any climate there is someone who is doing well, and while this single data point is important to you it's not really meaningful for me. I'm just checking to make sure I didn't miss any macro signs of recovery. This retail report is a bit premature.
    - ojbyrne 18y ago
      At this point, it's all about pessimism. It sounds like you're right in the heart of it. Probably somewhere on the east coast of the US. Me I'm not there. I'm going to go blow a few grand.
- mynameishere 18y ago
  The best stat to go on is here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND It gives you a rough idea of the health of the credit markets. TARP actually helped quite a bit, but it's been inching up over the past few days (up==bad) at the same time the markets have been going up. "Suckers' market" is what I think, and yet I made a few conservative purchases. Safe money remains firmly on the treasuries. Here's the only thing I know: Nobody knows. The more important the chart is (like the DJIA) the more it represents prophecy than reality.
  - DenisM 18y ago
    Thanks for the chart, I learned something new today. Looking at the five year chart I wouldn't call today's situation normal. TED spread is at 2 now and it's been at 4.5 at the peak of the crisis, at 1 throughout last year and at 0.5 before that. Better than worst, but worse than any other recent time since 1987. Much of the interbank trust sits on the health of the mortgages, and whether the worst in there is priced in or not is unclear. I have couple of arguments towards the worst being still ahead - a) while subprime ARMs are over, option ARMs have not begun to reset yet[1] b) mortgages issued later in the bubble were of lower quality than early mortgages(accroding to my common sense) c) it's unclear when synthetic mortgages come due - it's possible that they have already fallen apart (hence the acute crisis of trust) or they might be the last shoe to drop. And treasuries are only secure if dollar is secure. The recen run-up in dollar has no fundamnetals behind it other than delveraging, so once that's over it's bound to tank pulverising the real wealth stored in the treasuries. It's a fun time - I can't think of any safe assets right now. [1] see chart in here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5047.html http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5047.html
- iamdave 18y ago
  What data do you base your opinion on? Or is it meant to express your hopes rather than perception? The most crucial words of what he said: "in my opinion"
  - DenisM 18y ago
    Well, there are opinions and then there are opinions. I'm trying to differentiate opinions of different kinds: 1) "there is data which I analyzed into an opinion" 2) "there is an anecdote which I analyzed into an opinion" and 3) "there is my wish which I turned into opinion".