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These are excellent but I think #8 (statistics of small numbers) is one that, with some nuance, you can get more personal mileage out of if you're willing to to
by ckrapu 3y ago
These are excellent but I think #8 (statistics of small numbers) is one that, with some nuance, you can get more personal mileage out of if you're willing to tolerate being wrong some of the time.
For example, I've noticed that of the managers I've had, the good ones and bad ones are cleanly separated by one trait or property. This is a sample size of maybe 7 or smaller.
Depending on your priors, my P(Hypothesis | Data) is maybe 0.6-0.7 which is terrible from a research and scientific point of view.
I'll take that level of certainty for day-to-day decision making anytime, though. Make enough of these weakly-backed hypotheses and you can avoid a lot of trouble.
- plugin-baby 3y ago> I've noticed that of the managers I've had, the good ones and bad ones are cleanly separated by one trait or property. What was the trait?
- nerdponx 3y agoIsn't this essentially the basis of decision theory and statistical hypothesis testing? The hard part is to determine an acceptable probability of being wrong in any given situation.
- ckrapu 3y agoYes, and my only commentary here is that the threshold for academic decision science is a lot higher than the one I have for managing my day-to-day life.