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YZF wrote: > How can there be "most people in the know" when the Gaza strip is under the tight grip of Hamas? If you read the article is says that in past con

YZF wrote: > How can there be "most people in the know" when the Gaza strip is under the tight grip of Hamas? If you read the article is says that in past conflicts Gaza Health Ministry numbers were within 10% of Israel reported numbers. In the past there haven't been issues with the numbers being wrong. > Why are we even playing this numbers game in the first place? I am unsure. It is quite likely that there is a massive amount of death in Gaza, more after this evening. I think those spreading FUD about the numbers are trying to minimize what is going on, sort of a way of deflecting guilt about it. Some people say that the numbers are not real, others say that Hamas brought it upon the civilians, or others say that all civilians are responsible since they didn't over throw Hamas, etc. All I know is that it will probably get worse.

YZF 3y ago
I agree it will get worse. The playbook is to use the number of casualties to create international pressure on Israel to stop. Then once Israel stops the Hamas is going to emerge from its tunnels and celebrate its win over Israel. Let's agree that no innocent civilian on any side deserves to die. I think the best hope for that is that Israel has some magical success in getting to the Hamas leadership and hostages in the tunnels under Gaza. Very unlikely that Israel will yield to international pressure at this point. EDIT: It's also theoretically possible that Hamas would surrender and/or free all the hostages. I think that's pretty unlikely but we'll see.
- bhouston 3y ago
  > EDIT: It's also theoretically possible that Hamas would surrender and/or free all the hostages. I think that's pretty unlikely but we'll see. My best case would be that Hamas exchanges their hostages as they have many times before. Preferrable Hamas releases all the hostages, and in exchange the Hamas leadership (the top leadership, 100s maybe) gets safe passage to somewhere else - go to a Qatar or somewhere not directly adjacent. And then the PA takes over Gaza with international peacekeepers and we drive towards a 2-state solution aggressively. We would need Netanyahu sidelined for that as well - that guy has long boosted Hamas just to weaken Palestinian moderates and has aggressively expanded the settlements as well as opposed multiple US presidents when the pushed for a solution. Personally, I am a big fan of the Geneva Initiative as the outline of a 2-state solution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Initiative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Initiative

YZF 3y ago

I agree it will get worse. The playbook is to use the number of casualties to create international pressure on Israel to stop. Then once Israel stops the Hamas is going to emerge from its tunnels and celebrate its win over Israel. Let's agree that no innocent civilian on any side deserves to die. I think the best hope for that is that Israel has some magical success in getting to the Hamas leadership and hostages in the tunnels under Gaza. Very unlikely that Israel will yield to international pressure at this point. EDIT: It's also theoretically possible that Hamas would surrender and/or free all the hostages. I think that's pretty unlikely but we'll see.

bhouston 3y ago
> EDIT: It's also theoretically possible that Hamas would surrender and/or free all the hostages. I think that's pretty unlikely but we'll see. My best case would be that Hamas exchanges their hostages as they have many times before. Preferrable Hamas releases all the hostages, and in exchange the Hamas leadership (the top leadership, 100s maybe) gets safe passage to somewhere else - go to a Qatar or somewhere not directly adjacent. And then the PA takes over Gaza with international peacekeepers and we drive towards a 2-state solution aggressively. We would need Netanyahu sidelined for that as well - that guy has long boosted Hamas just to weaken Palestinian moderates and has aggressively expanded the settlements as well as opposed multiple US presidents when the pushed for a solution. Personally, I am a big fan of the Geneva Initiative as the outline of a 2-state solution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Initiative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Initiative