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I've always found the relative unreliability of meteorological predictions fascinating. A lot of the time they're spot on (even the notorious "probability of pr
by btbuildem 3y ago
I've always found the relative unreliability of meteorological predictions fascinating. A lot of the time they're spot on (even the notorious "probability of precipitation") and the way we're able to track and predict storm paths is so impressive.
But from time to time we get an event like this, and it really underscores how little we really know. The sheer complexity of the phenomena / the theory we use to contain and understand them, it just seems to misfire spectacularly on occasion.
In a fantasy world, I would like to see weather forecasts that reach several months out, with high reliability. Mapping winds, precipitation, etc, with high spatial and temporal accuracy.
- tills13 3y ago> even the notorious probability of precipitation Perhaps I'm just misunderstanding what you're saying but when it says "30% chance" what it is actually saying is "there's a 100% chance of rain in 30% of the coverage area". Not sure if that makes it more or less accurate.
- darkstarsys 3y agoThat's not true. For instance: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop#:~:text=What%20does%20this%20%2240%20percent,at%20least%200.01%22%20of%20rain https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop#:~:text=What%20does%20this%2....
- tills13 3y agoAh ok it must be a Canadian thing, then: https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/types-weather-forecasts-use/public/guide/elements.html#:~:text=The%20Chance%20of%20Precipitation%20(COP)%20is%20the%20chance%20that%20measurable%20precipitation%20(0.2%20mm%20of%20rain%20or%200.2%20cm%20of%20snow)%20will%20fall%20on%20%E2%80%9Cany%20random%20point%20of%20the%20forecast%20region%E2%80%9D%20during%20the%20forecast%20period https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services....
- btbuildem 3y agoIt's the inherent confusion and misunderstanding that I mean :)