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I feel like this has been known for a while. Months ago he essentially admitted to the core of the charges on a morning show and refused to stop after that. The

by rtkwe 3y ago

I feel like this has been known for a while. Months ago he essentially admitted to the core of the charges on a morning show and refused to stop after that. The Serious Trouble podcast, hosted by former (I think?) Twitter legal commentarian PopeHat/Ken White, has covered it a lot and just how much he's screwed his own legal defense. This was even before the bouts of witness tampering attempts that landed him in jail instead of plush house arrest.

matthewdgreen 3y ago
The best (non-serious) theory I’ve heard is that his parents are coordinating his conviction to get themselves off the hook. To be clear that’s dark humor and not a serious claim, but it sure explains his defense a lot better than any alternative.
- rtkwe 3y ago
  The best theory I've heard is he's banking on a hung jury. Only have to convince/persuade one person to get off and he's been able to weasel his way through life so far. As for the pretrial stuff I think that's just not realizing he's in real trouble not just trying to convince an investor to give him money to play with.
  - danpalmer 3y ago
    What's the long game on banking on a hung jury? That would typically lead to a retrial, especially given the publicity and amount of money involved here – the prosecution aren't going to let him off from one hung jury. I feel like he'd need a game plan, either waiting for something additional his team can bring in, or seriously thinking that the practice run would result in a higher likelihood of a not guilty verdict. I don't think either of these is likely, and think the prosecution would likely do better out of the practice run.
    - dylan604 3y ago
      A hung jury does not automatically mean a retrial. The prosecutor has to re-evaluate the situation. If SBF could convince 1 person on this jury, what does the prosecution need to do to prevent that from happening again? Is the expense of a second trial worth trying to put a single non-violent person in jail?
      - bragr 3y ago
        They'd retry him. They retry non-famous people with less serious charges and worse cases. Plus there's no other way to get that scarlet letter off the prosecutor's record.
        dylan604 3y ago
        Outside the circles that intersect with HN, how famous is SBF really? My non-tech friends have no clue who he is.
        danpalmer 3y ago
        This is pretty huge around tech, finance, politics/political donations, VCs, and advertising. Between that and it being one of the biggest fraud cases ever seen, a retrial is inevitable.
        rtkwe 3y ago
        He's been plastered across the news. Embezzling a hundred million dollars will get you some notoriety.
        FireBeyond 3y ago
        It's much more than that. In one transaction alone: > Another $413 million had gone directly to Bankman-Fried himself, through his wholly-owned company Paper Bird.
        3y ago

by rtkwe 3y ago

matthewdgreen 3y ago

The best (non-serious) theory I’ve heard is that his parents are coordinating his conviction to get themselves off the hook. To be clear that’s dark humor and not a serious claim, but it sure explains his defense a lot better than any alternative.

rtkwe 3y ago
The best theory I've heard is he's banking on a hung jury. Only have to convince/persuade one person to get off and he's been able to weasel his way through life so far. As for the pretrial stuff I think that's just not realizing he's in real trouble not just trying to convince an investor to give him money to play with.
- danpalmer 3y ago
  What's the long game on banking on a hung jury? That would typically lead to a retrial, especially given the publicity and amount of money involved here – the prosecution aren't going to let him off from one hung jury. I feel like he'd need a game plan, either waiting for something additional his team can bring in, or seriously thinking that the practice run would result in a higher likelihood of a not guilty verdict. I don't think either of these is likely, and think the prosecution would likely do better out of the practice run.
  - dylan604 3y ago
    A hung jury does not automatically mean a retrial. The prosecutor has to re-evaluate the situation. If SBF could convince 1 person on this jury, what does the prosecution need to do to prevent that from happening again? Is the expense of a second trial worth trying to put a single non-violent person in jail?
    - bragr 3y ago
      They'd retry him. They retry non-famous people with less serious charges and worse cases. Plus there's no other way to get that scarlet letter off the prosecutor's record.
      - dylan604 3y ago
        Outside the circles that intersect with HN, how famous is SBF really? My non-tech friends have no clue who he is.
        danpalmer 3y ago
        This is pretty huge around tech, finance, politics/political donations, VCs, and advertising. Between that and it being one of the biggest fraud cases ever seen, a retrial is inevitable.
        rtkwe 3y ago
        He's been plastered across the news. Embezzling a hundred million dollars will get you some notoriety.
        FireBeyond 3y ago
        It's much more than that. In one transaction alone: > Another $413 million had gone directly to Bankman-Fried himself, through his wholly-owned company Paper Bird.
        3y ago