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> wages are rising. The problem is that wages are rising in absolute terms, but tanking or stagnating in relative ones. The rise is also very, very unevenly di

by toyg 3y ago

> wages are rising. The problem is that wages are rising in absolute terms, but tanking or stagnating in relative ones. The rise is also very, very unevenly distributed; the top percentile are making great strides but the so-called "low skilled" are getting shafted badly.

ajross 3y ago
> The problem is that wages are rising in absolute terms, but tanking or stagnating in relative ones. Again, that's not true, at least not to the extent you think. It's a meme. It's something you believe because everyone else believes it. > the top percentile are making great strides but the so-called "low skilled" are getting shafted badly. Tell that to the UAW and the monster contract they just negotiated. Or the minimum wage laws that keep getting passed in almost every major metro area. (Again, this is all US stuff because those are the facts in my head, but this is a global phenomenon). I mean, how about you personally: are you personally making more or less in nominal terms than you were ~6 years ago. By how much? If it's not less than the 26% rise in CPI inflation since then, you are doing better, not worse. Again, the data doesn't support your impression. It just doesn't. And I find it absolutely fascinating that these impressions persist in the complete absence of evidence.
- toyg 3y ago
  Overall wage growth in real terms has been stuck for some time - now that it's 1% (1%!), it's considered among the highest for 20 years (for 20 years!). Absolute numbers have been fired up by inflation, but in real terms we're as stuck as ever. Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwor... , look at Fig.2. For the record, I currently make what I was making 6 years ago in absolute terms (pathetic, I know), but I am just about in the top 10% of wage-earners in the country I live in (UK), so it doesn't really matter. As far as I know, the story is not particularly different across the big European countries.
  - ajross 3y ago
    > Overall wage growth in real terms has been stuck for some time - now that it's 1% (1%!), it's considered among the highest for 20 years (for 20 years!). Yes! Exactly! This is the disconnect right here. First: real wage growth is always a good thing. It's not always above zero, by definition. Sometimes real wages contract. This i good news you're posting. And specifically it's historically good news: making a reasonable assumption about your age, wages are growing faster for your market right now than they have at any time in your career so far. And... you're trying to spin that... as... "bad" news? Seriously, how? Again, this is a meme. Someone sold you a line and you bought it. Seriously, what number do you think should be in that box to make you happy if "best in two decades" doesn't qualify?
    - toyg 3y ago
      > This i good news you're posting. Not good news, it's "slightly better than it could be" news. > wages are growing faster for your market right now than they have at any time in your career so far. Best in two decades doesn't mean "best in the postwar era", which is the usual horizon for labor conditions. And yeah, having started working in 2000, I've been blessed with real-terms wage stagnation for most of my working life. What luck! Why am I not grateful to unbridled capitalism?!?
      - ajross 3y ago
        I have to ask again: what specific number would you like to see for real wage growth in the UK to concede that the economy is "good"? If it's not "best in two decades", how much higher must it be? What fraction of historical workers have lived under those conditions?
        toyg 3y ago
        Have a look at some charts like these: https://www.economicvoice.com/chart-of-the-week-historical-real-average-salary/ https://www.economicvoice.com/chart-of-the-week-historical-r... The average over 160 years has been above 2%, and between 1950 and 2008 we've sailed close to double digits at times. This in a situation where, obviously, return from capital grew at much higher rates, increasing inequality - so hardly ideal, but decent. > What fraction of historical workers have lived under those conditions? The modern economy was effectively forged with Bretton Woods. Wages hit the brakes in the mid '90s, so for roughly 50 years workers had it decent - not always great, but decent. The subsequent 25 years have sucked. Here in UK we kinda papered over the cracks with an increase in public service provisions until roughly 2008, and it's been effectively "managed impoverishment" since then.
- wredue 3y ago
  >I find it fascinating that these impressions persist in the complete absence of evidence HN, Reddit, twitter and Facebook are all flooded with right wing bots. The more fascinating part is why these platforms continue to enable clear bot presence. Hilariously, HN limited my account on the basis of replying to these bots with actual facts, so get ready for your rate limit to fire up.
bryanlarsen 3y ago
The bottom 10% are also doing quite well. Help-wanted signs in every shop window mean the bottom 10% have their pick of jobs.

by toyg 3y ago

ajross 3y ago

> The problem is that wages are rising in absolute terms, but tanking or stagnating in relative ones. Again, that's not true, at least not to the extent you think. It's a meme. It's something you believe because everyone else believes it. > the top percentile are making great strides but the so-called "low skilled" are getting shafted badly. Tell that to the UAW and the monster contract they just negotiated. Or the minimum wage laws that keep getting passed in almost every major metro area. (Again, this is all US stuff because those are the facts in my head, but this is a global phenomenon). I mean, how about you personally: are you personally making more or less in nominal terms than you were ~6 years ago. By how much? If it's not less than the 26% rise in CPI inflation since then, you are doing better, not worse. Again, the data doesn't support your impression. It just doesn't. And I find it absolutely fascinating that these impressions persist in the complete absence of evidence.

toyg 3y ago
Overall wage growth in real terms has been stuck for some time - now that it's 1% (1%!), it's considered among the highest for 20 years (for 20 years!). Absolute numbers have been fired up by inflation, but in real terms we're as stuck as ever. Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwor... , look at Fig.2. For the record, I currently make what I was making 6 years ago in absolute terms (pathetic, I know), but I am just about in the top 10% of wage-earners in the country I live in (UK), so it doesn't really matter. As far as I know, the story is not particularly different across the big European countries.
- ajross 3y ago
  > Overall wage growth in real terms has been stuck for some time - now that it's 1% (1%!), it's considered among the highest for 20 years (for 20 years!). Yes! Exactly! This is the disconnect right here. First: real wage growth is always a good thing. It's not always above zero, by definition. Sometimes real wages contract. This i good news you're posting. And specifically it's historically good news: making a reasonable assumption about your age, wages are growing faster for your market right now than they have at any time in your career so far. And... you're trying to spin that... as... "bad" news? Seriously, how? Again, this is a meme. Someone sold you a line and you bought it. Seriously, what number do you think should be in that box to make you happy if "best in two decades" doesn't qualify?
  - toyg 3y ago
    > This i good news you're posting. Not good news, it's "slightly better than it could be" news. > wages are growing faster for your market right now than they have at any time in your career so far. Best in two decades doesn't mean "best in the postwar era", which is the usual horizon for labor conditions. And yeah, having started working in 2000, I've been blessed with real-terms wage stagnation for most of my working life. What luck! Why am I not grateful to unbridled capitalism?!?
    - ajross 3y ago
      I have to ask again: what specific number would you like to see for real wage growth in the UK to concede that the economy is "good"? If it's not "best in two decades", how much higher must it be? What fraction of historical workers have lived under those conditions?
      - toyg 3y ago
        Have a look at some charts like these: https://www.economicvoice.com/chart-of-the-week-historical-real-average-salary/ https://www.economicvoice.com/chart-of-the-week-historical-r... The average over 160 years has been above 2%, and between 1950 and 2008 we've sailed close to double digits at times. This in a situation where, obviously, return from capital grew at much higher rates, increasing inequality - so hardly ideal, but decent. > What fraction of historical workers have lived under those conditions? The modern economy was effectively forged with Bretton Woods. Wages hit the brakes in the mid '90s, so for roughly 50 years workers had it decent - not always great, but decent. The subsequent 25 years have sucked. Here in UK we kinda papered over the cracks with an increase in public service provisions until roughly 2008, and it's been effectively "managed impoverishment" since then.
wredue 3y ago
>I find it fascinating that these impressions persist in the complete absence of evidence HN, Reddit, twitter and Facebook are all flooded with right wing bots. The more fascinating part is why these platforms continue to enable clear bot presence. Hilariously, HN limited my account on the basis of replying to these bots with actual facts, so get ready for your rate limit to fire up.

bryanlarsen 3y ago

The bottom 10% are also doing quite well. Help-wanted signs in every shop window mean the bottom 10% have their pick of jobs.