The first NHC advisory mentioning the rapid intensification into a Cat 4... --- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep18/ep182023.discus.010.shtml https://w

The first NHC advisory mentioning the rapid intensification into a Cat 4... --- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep18/ep182023.discus.010.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep18/ep182023.discus.0... TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Otis has undergone very rapid intensification today. An eye became apparent on visible satellite images only a few hours ago, embedded in very deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft penetrated the eye around 1900 UTC and again around 2000 UTC, and found that the maximum sustained winds had increased to near 110 kt over a very small area near the center, while the central pressure remarkably dropped around 10 mb from the first to the second center fix. The intensity of Otis is well above the Dvorak satellite estimates, and again underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance in monitoring hurricanes. Otis should remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that will be conducive for further strengthening later today and tonight. Vertical wind shear should not be too strong, with SSTs near 30 deg C. Based on the observed changes, the short-term official intensity forecast remains above the model guidance. The system is now forecast to be at extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane status by the time it reaches the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or tomorrow morning. After landfall, the system should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The hurricane continues on about the same heading, or around 330/7 kt. For the next couple of days, Otis should move between a mid-level ridge to the east and northeast and a trough to its northwest. The official track forecast is about the same as the previous one and is a little faster than the dynamical consensus. On this track, the center of the hurricane will make landfall within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Wednesday.