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Are self-driving cars actually going to be lucrative? Yes, the progress is promising, but it seems to me (as an observer that knows nothing) that things aren't
by uejfiweun 3y ago
Are self-driving cars actually going to be lucrative?
Yes, the progress is promising, but it seems to me (as an observer that knows nothing) that things aren't very scalable.
- It seems like every city pretty much requires a custom-tailored solution, and they still haven't solved the "downtown" problem.
- It's far more of a regulatory minefield than a pure software business model.
- The cars themselves, in addition to being expensive, well, cars, also require even more specialized equipment like lidars and infrared cameras.
- I imagine that if real disruption starts to occur these cars are going to be easy targets for vandals and disgruntled transportation employees.
- IIUC the leader, Waymo, does all the computation in the cloud, so you're hosed if the network goes down.
I'm rooting for self driving cars as much as anyone, but it seems like an uphill battle to achieve a "fleet of robotaxis" style approach... seems more likely to me that Waymo will eventually license the tech to automakers for use in personal vehicles.
- pipe01 3y agoTeslas solve most of these but you can't mention Tesla here without people raising your pitchforks at you, and of course that's assuming that Tesla manages level 5 some day
- bombcar 3y agoThey will be lucractive if one company succeeds and can charge "human taxi fares" for driverless rides, and pocket the difference. That almost certainly won't happen, so it will be a hellrush of legislation and funding resulting in crashing prices and soaring costs and bankruptcies galore.
- jjulius 3y ago>That almost certainly won't happen, so it will be a hellrush of legislation and funding resulting in crashing prices and soaring costs and bankruptcies galore. Ooh, chaos! I'll start the popcorn.
- ra7 3y ago> IIUC the leader, Waymo, does all the computation in the cloud, so you're hosed if the network goes down. All the computation for driving happens on the onboard computer(s) and the maps are also onboard, so they can drive just fine without a network. But it is required for managing trips, remote assistance when necessary, etc. The vehicle will most likely come to a safe stop on its own during an extended network outage because it can’t report the trip status anymore.
- hiddencost 3y ago"IIUC the leader, Waymo, does all the computation in the cloud, so you're hosed if the network goes down." Book recommendation: Ada Palmer's "Seven Surrenders".
- sp332 3y agoThey are lucrative in the sense that they divert energy from trains and other public transportation infrastructure, keeping demand for cars high.
- mistercheph 3y agoWhy try to engineer effective solutions to transport that have known benefits and costs when we have can burn billions of dollars in the hopes that someday in the glorious future, everything will be the same but you can check instagram while in the driver's seat?
- Mawr 3y agoOh, but you already can check instagram while driving, people do it all the time :)