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My reading of the article was that this (and most above average hurricanes these days) was probably due to climate change, since the ocean was warmer than usual
by hedora 3y ago
My reading of the article was that this (and most above average hurricanes these days) was probably due to climate change, since the ocean was warmer than usual, etc. However, repeating that isn’t particularly interesting. In other news, it is 2023.
The interesting question then is why all the models screwed up so badly. Is it because climate change means the model is now inaccurate, or was this within the baseline (no climate change) error rate of current weather prediction technology?
Quoting the article:
> This rich warm water did not hurt matters at all.
> So how did every reliable model we use miss this?
- Applejinx 3y agoThe model IS also a chaotic system. My guess is that if the model accurately represents all the realities being modeled, and if they ran the simulation enough times, they would get Otis in the model. It's very easy to get chaotic behavior out of such a model, or even simple circuitry. At that point the question is not 'can the model do a run that produces Otis', because at that point it can and does, one run in ten thousand. The question is, do the forecasters refuse to mention that one run of the model that produced that result. What seemed to happen this time was, not enough data or attention, and nobody ran their model enough times to produce the Otis result in the model. I don't think anyone saw it and discarded it, I think it didn't show up in anybody's runs of their models. Odds are good that it COULD have, if the models are any good. It's just unlikely.