5 ms·

there is already a very good theory. see this interview with an expert from Yale: https://youtu.be/CSVFpval4Dw?si=oelutbqzOGcpI8gm https://youtu.be/CSVFpval4Dw?

there is already a very good theory. see this interview with an expert from Yale: https://youtu.be/CSVFpval4Dw?si=oelutbqzOGcpI8gm https://youtu.be/CSVFpval4Dw?si=oelutbqzOGcpI8gm tldr: garbage data into the model, garbage out. Detailed summary from interview: • only 1 hurricane hunter flight was done into this storm. • mexican hurricanes just don’t get as much reporting coverage (historically). For example for atlantic hurricanes, NOAA hurricane hunter airplanes have tail doppler radar, which provides good data to feed into the model. • without detailed doppler radar, they had to fallback to satellite measurements. • Mexico doesn’t have ground based radar coverage at all, like the US coast does.

selimthegrim 3y ago
Does Acapulco airport not have radar because the ATC for that part of Mexico is at Mazatlán?
- lurking_swe 3y ago
  i’m not an expert in this area myself. your comment made me curious though. chat gpt (GPT 4) helped me understand better: https://chat.openai.com/share/9448215d-2b65-4611-a634-f1a900253d6c https://chat.openai.com/share/9448215d-2b65-4611-a634-f1a900...
  - selimthegrim 3y ago
    Those locations are nowhere near Acapulco.
    - HumblyTossed 3y ago
      I think that was part of the point of the person you're replying to.
- selimthegrim 3y ago
  I meant ATC sector HQ, of course Acapulco has a tower.
lispisok 3y ago
This is the most likely answer. Since the atmosphere is a chaotic system weather models are extremely sensitive to initial conditions. A lot of the improvements in weather forecasts have come from better data assimilation for better initial conditions.
lurking_swe 3y ago
too late to edit my comment, but after more reading it seems like mexico does have land radar along the coast, but it’s a much smaller network compared to the US coast. So for this particular hurricane, there was lack of coverage.
patrickwalton 3y ago
Yep, I commented here that my company, Care Weather, is working on that problem. Goal is to provide hourly updates of ocean surface winds. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38038558 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38038558

selimthegrim 3y ago

Does Acapulco airport not have radar because the ATC for that part of Mexico is at Mazatlán?

lurking_swe 3y ago
i’m not an expert in this area myself. your comment made me curious though. chat gpt (GPT 4) helped me understand better: https://chat.openai.com/share/9448215d-2b65-4611-a634-f1a900253d6c https://chat.openai.com/share/9448215d-2b65-4611-a634-f1a900...
- selimthegrim 3y ago
  Those locations are nowhere near Acapulco.
  - HumblyTossed 3y ago
    I think that was part of the point of the person you're replying to.
selimthegrim 3y ago
I meant ATC sector HQ, of course Acapulco has a tower.

lispisok 3y ago

This is the most likely answer. Since the atmosphere is a chaotic system weather models are extremely sensitive to initial conditions. A lot of the improvements in weather forecasts have come from better data assimilation for better initial conditions.

lurking_swe 3y ago

too late to edit my comment, but after more reading it seems like mexico does have land radar along the coast, but it’s a much smaller network compared to the US coast. So for this particular hurricane, there was lack of coverage.

patrickwalton 3y ago

Yep, I commented here that my company, Care Weather, is working on that problem. Goal is to provide hourly updates of ocean surface winds. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38038558 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38038558