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Unemployment is way down, real wages are up even compared to before Covid-19, and inflation is back to normal levels. The large majority of people are doing we

Unemployment is way down, real wages are up even compared to before Covid-19, and inflation is back to normal levels. The large majority of people are doing well. When people say the economy sucks they are largely not talking about their own economic situation. Most people believe that they, personally, are doing well, but that some nebulous "the economy" is doing badly. We have a nation of thriving people who believe everything is falling apart. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/07/opinion/economy-inflation-negativity.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/07/opinion/economy-inflation...

thereddaikon 3y ago
I'm going to copy paste a comment I made elsewhere to get my point across. People don't think of inflation quarter to quarter or even FY to FY. They think of it in terms of what they are calibrated to think "normal" prices are. For most people that's going to be pre-pandemic. Since prices have not returned to pre-pandemic levels the economy is bad. Especially so since their wages haven't gone up comparably to match. This is why the numbers are largely useless at gauging public sentiment. Nobody cares that this quarter the rate of inflation has slowed. They care that chicken breasts cost double what it should. They care that a Ford Mustang GT can cost $50k when they were pretty sure they were $30k. They care that fast food costs as much as a sit down restaraunt should and the sit down costs as much as a nice one should. Now you can all explain that with numbers and reports but sentiment doesn't care about that. Public opinion is an inherently irrational thing. But it is still incredibly important because elections are decided by it. It doesn't matter if GDP is positive and inflation is good right now if everyone thinks we are in a recession and the prices of everything are too damn high. You will get voted out. I'm not sure why this is a hard concept to grasp.
- db-interface 3y ago
  > Especially so since their wages haven't gone up comparably to match. The economic data indicates that average income has gone up more than prices have since the start of the pandemic. If you look at Real Personal Income (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI) it's up 5% relative to the end of 2019. And if you think inflation is way higher than is being adjusted for, you're simply wrong. The MSRP for a 2023 Mustang GT is $38,345 (https://www.kbb.com/ford/mustang/2023/ https://www.kbb.com/ford/mustang/2023/). The 2020 was $38,320 (https://www.kbb.com/ford/mustang/2020/ https://www.kbb.com/ford/mustang/2020/). The price of Chicken Breast is up 38%, not 100% (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FF1101 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FF1101). Yes, public opinion is irrational, but the more obvious political question is why public opinion is so wrong now, when often it is not so pessimistic about the economy.
  - slaw 3y ago
    You have data all wrong. In 2020 I could get Mustang GT for $8k off MSRP. In 2023 Mustang GT MSRP is $42,495 and there is only $500 off. https://www.ford.com/cars/mustang/models/gt-fastback/ https://www.ford.com/cars/mustang/models/gt-fastback/
    - db-interface 3y ago
      Unfortunately I could not find data on prices after discounts -- I would love if you could point me to some! I find it hard to believe the average discount in 2019/20 was $8k off on a base trim GT, but if you actually bought one with that discount then fair enough. Note that's still a significantly smaller increase than my parent comment indicated.
      - slaw 3y ago
        You didn't even get MSRP for 2023 right. Try to learn google or bing or something.
        db-interface 3y ago
        The link you gave me is the 2024 MSRP, not 2023. No need to be rude, especially if you're not going to actually read my comments or your own links.
  - asfdgionoino 3y ago
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  - thereddaikon 3y ago
    >average income has gone up To that I would say there is likely a problem with average. I didn't see a break down of the data in your link, but admittedly its my lunch break and I didn't have the time to really dig for it either. But its entirely possible that some groups saw an outsized growth in wages while others didn't. >The MSRP for a 2023 Mustang GT is $38,345 The MSRP of a Mustang GT is $42k before options https://shop.ford.com/configure/mustang/model/customize/ecoboostfastback?intcmp=vhp-bb-fbc https://shop.ford.com/configure/mustang/model/customize/ecob... The GT Premium is $47k
- caskstrength 3y ago
  > Now you can all explain that with numbers and reports but sentiment doesn't care about that. Public opinion is an inherently irrational thing. Is it public opinion being irrational or governments around the world playing games with "basket of goods", "core" inflation and other bullshit designed to convince their citizens to trust magic math formulas instead of their own eyes?
- rainsford 3y ago
  I'd argue such voters are significant because they will potentially impact the results of an election, but I'm not sure they're important in the sense of being worth any politician's time trying to address. There's no realistic way prices across the board are going to significant deflate (i.e. return to pre-pandemic levels) absent some economic catastrophe, especially when the people demanding it mostly seem to be over-estimating how much the price of things actually went up (like Ford Mustangs and chicken breasts). And it's definitely not something any elected official has the power to actually achieve. Increases in real spending power could help people generally concerned about purchasing power, but it doesn't help for the people you're describing who are anchored by past absolute dollar prices.

thereddaikon 3y ago

I'm going to copy paste a comment I made elsewhere to get my point across. People don't think of inflation quarter to quarter or even FY to FY. They think of it in terms of what they are calibrated to think "normal" prices are. For most people that's going to be pre-pandemic. Since prices have not returned to pre-pandemic levels the economy is bad. Especially so since their wages haven't gone up comparably to match. This is why the numbers are largely useless at gauging public sentiment. Nobody cares that this quarter the rate of inflation has slowed. They care that chicken breasts cost double what it should. They care that a Ford Mustang GT can cost $50k when they were pretty sure they were $30k. They care that fast food costs as much as a sit down restaraunt should and the sit down costs as much as a nice one should. Now you can all explain that with numbers and reports but sentiment doesn't care about that. Public opinion is an inherently irrational thing. But it is still incredibly important because elections are decided by it. It doesn't matter if GDP is positive and inflation is good right now if everyone thinks we are in a recession and the prices of everything are too damn high. You will get voted out. I'm not sure why this is a hard concept to grasp.

db-interface 3y ago
> Especially so since their wages haven't gone up comparably to match. The economic data indicates that average income has gone up more than prices have since the start of the pandemic. If you look at Real Personal Income (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI) it's up 5% relative to the end of 2019. And if you think inflation is way higher than is being adjusted for, you're simply wrong. The MSRP for a 2023 Mustang GT is $38,345 (https://www.kbb.com/ford/mustang/2023/ https://www.kbb.com/ford/mustang/2023/). The 2020 was $38,320 (https://www.kbb.com/ford/mustang/2020/ https://www.kbb.com/ford/mustang/2020/). The price of Chicken Breast is up 38%, not 100% (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FF1101 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FF1101). Yes, public opinion is irrational, but the more obvious political question is why public opinion is so wrong now, when often it is not so pessimistic about the economy.
- slaw 3y ago
  You have data all wrong. In 2020 I could get Mustang GT for $8k off MSRP. In 2023 Mustang GT MSRP is $42,495 and there is only $500 off. https://www.ford.com/cars/mustang/models/gt-fastback/ https://www.ford.com/cars/mustang/models/gt-fastback/
  - db-interface 3y ago
    Unfortunately I could not find data on prices after discounts -- I would love if you could point me to some! I find it hard to believe the average discount in 2019/20 was $8k off on a base trim GT, but if you actually bought one with that discount then fair enough. Note that's still a significantly smaller increase than my parent comment indicated.
    - slaw 3y ago
      You didn't even get MSRP for 2023 right. Try to learn google or bing or something.
      - db-interface 3y ago
        The link you gave me is the 2024 MSRP, not 2023. No need to be rude, especially if you're not going to actually read my comments or your own links.
- asfdgionoino 3y ago
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- thereddaikon 3y ago
  >average income has gone up To that I would say there is likely a problem with average. I didn't see a break down of the data in your link, but admittedly its my lunch break and I didn't have the time to really dig for it either. But its entirely possible that some groups saw an outsized growth in wages while others didn't. >The MSRP for a 2023 Mustang GT is $38,345 The MSRP of a Mustang GT is $42k before options https://shop.ford.com/configure/mustang/model/customize/ecoboostfastback?intcmp=vhp-bb-fbc https://shop.ford.com/configure/mustang/model/customize/ecob... The GT Premium is $47k
caskstrength 3y ago
> Now you can all explain that with numbers and reports but sentiment doesn't care about that. Public opinion is an inherently irrational thing. Is it public opinion being irrational or governments around the world playing games with "basket of goods", "core" inflation and other bullshit designed to convince their citizens to trust magic math formulas instead of their own eyes?
rainsford 3y ago
I'd argue such voters are significant because they will potentially impact the results of an election, but I'm not sure they're important in the sense of being worth any politician's time trying to address. There's no realistic way prices across the board are going to significant deflate (i.e. return to pre-pandemic levels) absent some economic catastrophe, especially when the people demanding it mostly seem to be over-estimating how much the price of things actually went up (like Ford Mustangs and chicken breasts). And it's definitely not something any elected official has the power to actually achieve. Increases in real spending power could help people generally concerned about purchasing power, but it doesn't help for the people you're describing who are anchored by past absolute dollar prices.