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See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cluster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cluster It's worth noting that one needn't offset all the advan

by roc 15y ago

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cluster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cluster It's worth noting that one needn't offset all the advantages of a cluster for production outside of it to make sense: There is no shortage of US auto manufacturing plants that are not in Detroit nor in places with anything remotely like its cluster advantage. But for rapidly-changing products, the advantages of a cluster are compounded. If you're not changing screens and screws and implementing brand new technologies on an annual basis, being able to get a custom part ASAP is less of an advantage. But if you are changing things every single year ... I wouldn't be surprised to see US manufacturing return. Particularly as energy (shipping) prices continue to increase, China's wage advantage dissipates and automation matures. But it's going to start with fairly mature, static and/or commodified products.

mhurron 15y ago
What do you think is going to provide more short term profit, move manufacturing back the the US and build X with US workers, or move manufacturing out of China to another cheap country when Chinese labor gets too expensive? What's gone isn't coming back until it's cheaper to build it in the US. That's what moved it to China in the first place, and that's what will move it from China.
- roc 15y ago
  > "What's gone isn't coming back until it's cheaper to build it in the US." Yes and no. Yes, at a high level that's true. But you seem to be making an assumption that human labor costs will remain an important component and that the "it" being manufactured will remain constant. Consider that automation may not even be cheaper on a 'net screws turned per hour' basis than cheap humans. But quality and consistency matters. Speed of line changes matters. Speed of retraining matters. And, further, current designs are limited to what can be assembled cheaply (that is: reasonably quickly/safely/accurately) by two human hands and ten human fingers, with a human attached (who hopefully doesn't require slow or expensive tools/safety equipment/etc). Automation removes those concerns entirely. Caustic compounds could be mixed on the spot, fixation technologies that are infeasible for human dexterity are possible, multiple steps could be completed in parallel, etc. So keep in mind that while it may be sufficiently cheaper to have, say, Brazilians turning screws than Chinese, such that iPads could some day be cheaper to build in Brazil - it's entirely likely that before that happens, robots will be building newer iPad designs, more cheaply than could ever be feasibly constructed by humans even at a zero wage.

by roc 15y ago

mhurron 15y ago

What do you think is going to provide more short term profit, move manufacturing back the the US and build X with US workers, or move manufacturing out of China to another cheap country when Chinese labor gets too expensive? What's gone isn't coming back until it's cheaper to build it in the US. That's what moved it to China in the first place, and that's what will move it from China.

roc 15y ago
> "What's gone isn't coming back until it's cheaper to build it in the US." Yes and no. Yes, at a high level that's true. But you seem to be making an assumption that human labor costs will remain an important component and that the "it" being manufactured will remain constant. Consider that automation may not even be cheaper on a 'net screws turned per hour' basis than cheap humans. But quality and consistency matters. Speed of line changes matters. Speed of retraining matters. And, further, current designs are limited to what can be assembled cheaply (that is: reasonably quickly/safely/accurately) by two human hands and ten human fingers, with a human attached (who hopefully doesn't require slow or expensive tools/safety equipment/etc). Automation removes those concerns entirely. Caustic compounds could be mixed on the spot, fixation technologies that are infeasible for human dexterity are possible, multiple steps could be completed in parallel, etc. So keep in mind that while it may be sufficiently cheaper to have, say, Brazilians turning screws than Chinese, such that iPads could some day be cheaper to build in Brazil - it's entirely likely that before that happens, robots will be building newer iPad designs, more cheaply than could ever be feasibly constructed by humans even at a zero wage.