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What odds would you like to bet that GCP is going to be gone in 10 years?

perelin 3y ago
The sentiment is probably not abou GCP as a whole, but about its trigger happiness when it comes to deprecating services. Fun read: https://steve-yegge.medium.com/dear-google-cloud-your-deprecation-policy-is-killing-you-ee7525dc05dc https://steve-yegge.medium.com/dear-google-cloud-your-deprec...
- Eridrus 3y ago
  I'm not going to read yegge's rants. Name the odds and condition you think gcp will violate.
  - cachesking 3y ago
    Google IoT came and went.
judge2020 3y ago
If they do want to kill it, I can see them giving as little as a 5 year window before everything is shut down. Odds? Nobody's a fortune teller, but it was still being subsidized by ads with 3B loss in its FY22[0 p. 70], only increasing 100M in profit despite cloud revenue growing from 19B to 26B overall [0 p. 66]. They're either going to need to increase costs or add more "killer" products with large margins if they want to become profitable. 0: https://abc.xyz/assets/d4/4f/a48b94d548d0b2fdc029a95e8c63/2022-alphabet-annual-report.pdf#page=70 https://abc.xyz/assets/d4/4f/a48b94d548d0b2fdc029a95e8c63/20...
- Eridrus 3y ago
  At what odds are you willing to make a bet on this? Do you think there's a 20% chance it's gone in 5 years? Do you think it's 5%? Do you think it's 30%? People keep saying things will be shut down and I think they should put their money where their mouth is.
  - seanthemon 3y ago
    What an oddly aggressive comment - perhaps the problem isn't prediction but extrapolation of past experiences with Google, would you not agree that it gives you a sliver of worry that they may cut the service off? You seem very intense about Google's offering, maybe you feel attacked by the points made in the thread, but the way you're approaching this discussion is very strange.
    - gkbrk 3y ago
      Eridrus used to work at Google. Not sure if it would be good to disclose before aggressively asking people to bet on the lifespan of Google products, I certainly would err on the side of disclosing.
      - Eridrus 3y ago
        Sure, I used to work at Google, I used to work at Microsoft, some of my best friends worked at Amazon, I own stock in all of them. Are you interested in making a bet on the chance GCP will be discontinued?
    - Eridrus 3y ago
      I'm tired of reading the same thing over and over where people prognosticate based on poor readings of events and I think people should put there money where their mouth is. I really do not think the chance of GCP discontinuing a core service is high enough to warrant the level of comments this gets and if I find myself constantly reading these comments, maybe I can at least be compensated by people making bad bets or maybe people will admit the chance is really low. So if you are so worried about this, please give me a number that represents how worried you are about this.
      - snoman 3y ago
        Nonzero is enough to choose an alternative.
        3y ago
- Rebelgecko 3y ago
  It's already profitable (although the Q2 profits were apparently a few million below wall street's expectation)
HideousKojima 3y ago
If it can't get profitable (or at least within $1B/year of profitable, or have some sort of major loss leader value to Google) then I'd give it 90% likelihood they they announce a shutdown within 10 years. Whether or not they'll continue to lose billions a year for Google I can't say.
- Eridrus 3y ago
  If you want to give me 10:1 odds GCP is not going to be around in 10 years, I will bet you any amount of money you are willing to name lol.
- VirusNewbie 3y ago
  They had a net profit of 266M this quarter, so like, as of today they're on track to go past 1B in profit.
- elijaht 3y ago
  Cloud was profitable during the last quarter

The sentiment is probably not abou GCP as a whole, but about its trigger happiness when it comes to deprecating services. Fun read: https://steve-yegge.medium.com/dear-google-cloud-your-deprecation-policy-is-killing-you-ee7525dc05dc https://steve-yegge.medium.com/dear-google-cloud-your-deprec...

Eridrus 3y ago
I'm not going to read yegge's rants. Name the odds and condition you think gcp will violate.
- cachesking 3y ago
  Google IoT came and went.

judge2020 3y ago

If they do want to kill it, I can see them giving as little as a 5 year window before everything is shut down. Odds? Nobody's a fortune teller, but it was still being subsidized by ads with 3B loss in its FY22[0 p. 70], only increasing 100M in profit despite cloud revenue growing from 19B to 26B overall [0 p. 66]. They're either going to need to increase costs or add more "killer" products with large margins if they want to become profitable. 0: https://abc.xyz/assets/d4/4f/a48b94d548d0b2fdc029a95e8c63/2022-alphabet-annual-report.pdf#page=70 https://abc.xyz/assets/d4/4f/a48b94d548d0b2fdc029a95e8c63/20...

Eridrus 3y ago
At what odds are you willing to make a bet on this? Do you think there's a 20% chance it's gone in 5 years? Do you think it's 5%? Do you think it's 30%? People keep saying things will be shut down and I think they should put their money where their mouth is.
- seanthemon 3y ago
  What an oddly aggressive comment - perhaps the problem isn't prediction but extrapolation of past experiences with Google, would you not agree that it gives you a sliver of worry that they may cut the service off? You seem very intense about Google's offering, maybe you feel attacked by the points made in the thread, but the way you're approaching this discussion is very strange.
  - gkbrk 3y ago
    Eridrus used to work at Google. Not sure if it would be good to disclose before aggressively asking people to bet on the lifespan of Google products, I certainly would err on the side of disclosing.
    - Eridrus 3y ago
      Sure, I used to work at Google, I used to work at Microsoft, some of my best friends worked at Amazon, I own stock in all of them. Are you interested in making a bet on the chance GCP will be discontinued?
  - Eridrus 3y ago
    I'm tired of reading the same thing over and over where people prognosticate based on poor readings of events and I think people should put there money where their mouth is. I really do not think the chance of GCP discontinuing a core service is high enough to warrant the level of comments this gets and if I find myself constantly reading these comments, maybe I can at least be compensated by people making bad bets or maybe people will admit the chance is really low. So if you are so worried about this, please give me a number that represents how worried you are about this.
    - snoman 3y ago
      Nonzero is enough to choose an alternative.
      - 3y ago
Rebelgecko 3y ago
It's already profitable (although the Q2 profits were apparently a few million below wall street's expectation)

HideousKojima 3y ago

If it can't get profitable (or at least within $1B/year of profitable, or have some sort of major loss leader value to Google) then I'd give it 90% likelihood they they announce a shutdown within 10 years. Whether or not they'll continue to lose billions a year for Google I can't say.

Eridrus 3y ago
If you want to give me 10:1 odds GCP is not going to be around in 10 years, I will bet you any amount of money you are willing to name lol.
VirusNewbie 3y ago
They had a net profit of 266M this quarter, so like, as of today they're on track to go past 1B in profit.
elijaht 3y ago
Cloud was profitable during the last quarter