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This just shows how statistics can mislead. I own a Tesla with FSD and it's extremely unsafe for city driving. Just to quantify, I'd say at its absolute best, a

This just shows how statistics can mislead. I own a Tesla with FSD and it's extremely unsafe for city driving. Just to quantify, I'd say at its absolute best, about 1 in 8 left turns result in a dangerous error that requires me to retake control of the car. There is no way it even comes close to approaching the safety of a human driver.

jjoonathan 3y ago
I only spent 3/4 of my post adding caveats, geez. Thanks for the first hand intuition, though.
- root_axis 3y ago
  The caveats are missing the point that FSD is very obviously less safe than a human driver, unless you constrain the data to long stretches of interstate road during the day, with nice weather, clearly marked road lines and minimal construction. At that point, my "intuition" tells me human drivers probably still safer, but under typical driving conditions they very obviously are (at least with Tesla FSD, I don't know about Waymo)
  - jjoonathan 3y ago
    The reason why I spent 3/4 of my post on caveats was because I didn't want people to read my post as claiming that FSD was safe, and instead focus on my real point that the unthinkable numbers from the video aren't actually unthinkable anymore because Tesla has a massive fleet. You're right, though, I could have spent 5/6 of my post on caveats instead. I apologize for my indiscretion.
    - root_axis 3y ago
      > my real point that the unthinkable numbers from the video aren't actually unthinkable anymore because Tesla has a massive flee Yes, I'm addressing that point directly, specifically the fact that this "unthinkable number" is misleading regardless of the number's magnitude.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - jjoonathan 3y ago
        FSD's imperfections and supervision do not invalidate their fleet's size and its consequent ability to collect training data and statistics (eventually, deaths per mile statistics). The low fleet size assumption in the presentation is simply toast. If I had claimed that the 500 million number indicated a certain level of deaths-per-mile safety, that would be invalid -- but I spent 3/4 of my post emphasizing that it did not, even though you keep pretending otherwise.
dcow 3y ago
You could start by comparing highway driving, where I think Tesla actually is quite good.

jjoonathan 3y ago

I only spent 3/4 of my post adding caveats, geez. Thanks for the first hand intuition, though.

root_axis 3y ago
The caveats are missing the point that FSD is very obviously less safe than a human driver, unless you constrain the data to long stretches of interstate road during the day, with nice weather, clearly marked road lines and minimal construction. At that point, my "intuition" tells me human drivers probably still safer, but under typical driving conditions they very obviously are (at least with Tesla FSD, I don't know about Waymo)
- jjoonathan 3y ago
  The reason why I spent 3/4 of my post on caveats was because I didn't want people to read my post as claiming that FSD was safe, and instead focus on my real point that the unthinkable numbers from the video aren't actually unthinkable anymore because Tesla has a massive fleet. You're right, though, I could have spent 5/6 of my post on caveats instead. I apologize for my indiscretion.
  - root_axis 3y ago
    > my real point that the unthinkable numbers from the video aren't actually unthinkable anymore because Tesla has a massive flee Yes, I'm addressing that point directly, specifically the fact that this "unthinkable number" is misleading regardless of the number's magnitude.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - jjoonathan 3y ago
      FSD's imperfections and supervision do not invalidate their fleet's size and its consequent ability to collect training data and statistics (eventually, deaths per mile statistics). The low fleet size assumption in the presentation is simply toast. If I had claimed that the 500 million number indicated a certain level of deaths-per-mile safety, that would be invalid -- but I spent 3/4 of my post emphasizing that it did not, even though you keep pretending otherwise.

dcow 3y ago

You could start by comparing highway driving, where I think Tesla actually is quite good.