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Good grief, two skateboarders lives saved by a Waymo in two consecutive comments. A couple of weeks ago I came across a biker partially lying in the road, trap

Good grief, two skateboarders lives saved by a Waymo in two consecutive comments. A couple of weeks ago I came across a biker partially lying in the road, trapped by his bike. I parked my van at an angle, so if it was hit from behind it should roll past him. I jumped out and performed an assessment (I'm a qualified, OK: certificated first aider). I diagnosed "pissed" and ascertained he was unharmed. We got his bike in the back of the van with the help of some concerned pedestrians who initially thought I'd hit him. I drove him home. I'm not sure a machine would have noticed an odd lump next to a lamppost, with a civic rubbish bin next to it, in the rain. What sort of sensors do these Waymo things have? They will have to be really, really clever and seriously expensive. I don't deny that eventually a vehicle with enough decent sensors and some fancy processing will outperform me but I've managed 30+ years on the road with just a few scratches, a broken wing mirror and a rear ending from an articulated lorry. I've managed to return a hire car around Napoli (Italy) after a couple of weeks without any issues! That may not sound too impressive but have a look at the state of vehicles around St Antonio Abate etc - it looks like the locals play bumper cars. May I also note that I'm a Brit and we drive on the left. Italians don't. So I can adapt to local conditions. I have also driven across large parts of the rest of Europe and the north Americas. I can adapt to local driving styles from the "use your entire car as the indicator" as seen in the Amalfi coastal area (int al) to "no after you" as you tend to see in large parts of the UK and Eire. I can deal with all the different regulations. A classic European one you don't see elsewhere is the white diamond sign with a yellow centre that indicates that you have right of way until it is cancelled with black stripes. Then there is the French "priority to the right" thing (which has also pervaded the UK somewhat wrt roundabouts). I can negotiate this with ease: https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5628345,-1.7713341,110m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5628345,-1.7713341,110m/da... and this on a wing and a prayer: https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@48.8654026,2.3222455,464m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@48.8654026,2.3222455,464m/dat... I'd love to see a Weymo navigate those.

fhub 3y ago
I do want to clarify that my comment: the skateboarder would not have died. Waymo provided a larger margin of error for the board rider than a human could possibly have.
- gerdesj 3y ago
  No need for this comment - you deployed an anecdote from personal experience. That's fine. However you finish with an assertion with no evidence. Care to elaborate? What on earth does this actually mean: "Waymo provided a larger margin of error for the board rider than a human could possibly have."
  - tialaramex 3y ago
    Humans cannot react very fast, this incident comes down to fast reactions and the good all around vision in the Waymo. On these measures a human isn't competitive.
    - mistercheph 3y ago
      And this is just something you've decided is true or...? One sensor with determinate output based on an input from a finite set, sure I won't argue with you, but in any domain with indeterminate outputs coming from inputs that are of an infinite set, there is no meaningful notion of reaction time, there are imperfect decisions made with incomplete information at a moment during the dangerous spiral of number of possible responses shrinking and information completeness growing, (should I react now or wait until I have more information about how effective each of the dwindling number of path s available to me are shrinking) too name just one complexity. I believe that we will get there and sooner than skeptics believe, but we are so far away from machines having driving skill equal to that of the average human driver, who happens to be driving while distracted 99% of the time.
      - mlyle 3y ago
        Here an objective difference is described: a Waymo vehicle reacted to new visual information in a direction that a human driver would not be likely to be looking.
__loam 3y ago
They have multiple radars, lidars, and cameras. They're far more capable of detecting obstacles than people are.
- wolverine876 3y ago
  They have different capabilities, but it doesn't follow that such technology is better than the built-in tech in homo sapiens.
  - __loam 3y ago
    It is demonstrably better. They see more and react faster. They can see around obstacles that humans can't and they never get tired or distracted.
    - ClumsyPilot 3y ago
      See more in the rain y dark? Sure. But can they look at a driver's face and realise that they are distracted with their phone and haven't seen you?
      - bumby 3y ago
        This is an important point. Humans have evolved a way to intuit the thoughts and behaviors of other drivers. It’s why people who are mentally ill are unsettling; it’s very hard to pick up on their intentions and course of action. That’s why in think the hurdle isn’t “better than the average human driver.” Because humans won’t trust a machine in the same way as another human, the level of safety for AVs may have to be much, much greater before the public as a whole trusts them with safety critical decisions.
      - __loam 3y ago
        Yes they can. They are absolutely capable of looking at gestures. That matters a lot more when you're trying to determine the intent of a pedestrian than a driver. If it's another driver, the system can also do real time physics calculations to avoid a vehicle straying into the av's trajectory. And they might even do some kind of computer vision with other drivers to determine intent. Also if another driver just hits the car because they were distracted, why would the AV be at fault? These are really sophisticated systems and they've really thought of a lot of issues. All of these companies have hundreds, if not thousands of engineers who have been working on this problem for over a decade, as well as an army of lawyers trying to get things into compliance. I don't think "well it can't do x as well as a human" is going to hold up in 10 or 20 years when these systems are clearly much safer. Human driven cars will eventually be uninsurable.
tim333 3y ago
Though Waymo et al aren't really competing with unusually good drivers, more with average drivers and they are probably safer there, on the roads they have been trained for. (one study - 100% reduction in the frequency of bodily injury claims and a 76% decrease in property damage -https://www.ktvu.com/news/waymo-says-its-driverless-cars-safer-than-those-driven-by-humans https://www.ktvu.com/news/waymo-says-its-driverless-cars-saf...)
- prmoustache 3y ago
  The thing is most drivers should not be allowed to drive given their low training, driving standard, general lack of empathy and/or medications or substance abuse issues but society incorrectly assume driving is a right while it should be considered a privilege you earn and that can be revoked anytime based on regular tests + eventual tickets. I estimate at around 20% the amount of drivers that really should be allowed to drive given their current driving standards. Possibly more could be allowed after additionnal training and showing better driving standards knowing their license is at risk.
  - lynx23 3y ago
    Ahem... "lack of empathy", how do you plan to quantify/measure that. Also, I was under the impression that in most countries on this planet, the priviledge of being allowed to drive a car is handed out with the drivers licence, which in most countries, you actually have to have training and a test for. I also thought it was normal practice that these licenses also get revoked, based on tickets... The only gripe I have with the system is that elderly are not automatically subjected to a regular test of their mental faculties and remaining sight. I am getting sick of 90 year old grandmas killing 3 year olds "by accident".
    - prmoustache 3y ago
      > Ahem... "lack of empathy", how do you plan to quantify/measure that. That is a tricky one. > Also, I was under the impression that in most countries on this planet, the priviledge of being allowed to drive a car is handed out with the drivers licence, which in most countries, you actually have to have training and a test for. Training which varies a lot depending on the country. I did a lot of hours + 3000kms under supervision of my father + dedicated classes with emergency from 90kph to 0 braking on varying surfaces, including having 2 wheels on gravel and 2 wheels on pavement to be able to handle situations where the car would naturally go sideways. My Mexican partner in comparison took a handful of classes using an automatic car and only passed the test using a simulator and there you go she had her license. > I also thought it was normal practice that these licenses also get revoked, based on tickets... It needs an absurd amount of them for it to happen and we should still require periodic tests and knowledge refresh of the rules of the road. > I am getting sick of 90 year old grandmas killing 3 year olds "by accident". I am pretty sure they represent a marginal fraction of the accidents/killing compared to distracted drivers.
kaycebasques 3y ago
> I parked my van at an angle, so if it was hit from behind it should roll past him. Good tip!
oceanplexian 3y ago
> I'm not sure a machine would have noticed an odd lump next to a lamppost, with a civic rubbish bin next to it, in the rain. As opposed to what? You don’t have RADAR, or LIDAR, or echolocation, or any other way to “detect” a person in the road. You have human vision. This is the idea behind Tesla FSD. If human vision is good enough, computer vision is good enough. We have cameras that can approximate human vision. All the other companies using sensors are doing so as a crutch, because they didn’t have the chops to solve the vision problem.
- n2d4 3y ago
  The correct question to ask isn't "is computer vision enough", it's "if humans had LIDAR sensors, would they use them to cause fewer road accidents".
  - gerdesj 3y ago
    I really don't need LIDAR. I have roughly 3 billion years of evolution and the end result - eyes, brain etc. LIDAR is simply a sensor and a very inferior one, in general, when compared to my visual system. For starters it needs something to interpret it. My eyes have a 52 year old brain stuffed with experience behind them and it isn't always a hindrance! I can reason about other people's driving style and react accordingly. I can also describe my actions and reasoning on internet forums. I really do not want an inferior sensor such as LIDAR inflicted on me, nor would I want it to be the sole source of information for something that conveys me.
- thorncorona 3y ago
  tesla vision doesn’t have an agi behind it though lol. and why gimp ourselves. if we had an extra sense to navigate with we would 100% be using it.
- diffeomorphism 3y ago
  A rock instead of a hammer is also probably "good enough". Still a bad idea.
- gerdesj 3y ago
barrkel 3y ago
The yellow diamond with a black stripe puts you into "French priority to the right" mode and it's not restricted to France, it's pretty common across the continent. I like how it's indicated with road paint here in Switzerland, e.g. https://www.reddit.com/r/Switzerland/comments/wp6clo/who_has_the_right_of_way/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Switzerland/comments/wp6clo/who_has...

fhub 3y ago

I do want to clarify that my comment: the skateboarder would not have died. Waymo provided a larger margin of error for the board rider than a human could possibly have.

gerdesj 3y ago
No need for this comment - you deployed an anecdote from personal experience. That's fine. However you finish with an assertion with no evidence. Care to elaborate? What on earth does this actually mean: "Waymo provided a larger margin of error for the board rider than a human could possibly have."
- tialaramex 3y ago
  Humans cannot react very fast, this incident comes down to fast reactions and the good all around vision in the Waymo. On these measures a human isn't competitive.
  - mistercheph 3y ago
    And this is just something you've decided is true or...? One sensor with determinate output based on an input from a finite set, sure I won't argue with you, but in any domain with indeterminate outputs coming from inputs that are of an infinite set, there is no meaningful notion of reaction time, there are imperfect decisions made with incomplete information at a moment during the dangerous spiral of number of possible responses shrinking and information completeness growing, (should I react now or wait until I have more information about how effective each of the dwindling number of path s available to me are shrinking) too name just one complexity. I believe that we will get there and sooner than skeptics believe, but we are so far away from machines having driving skill equal to that of the average human driver, who happens to be driving while distracted 99% of the time.
    - mlyle 3y ago
      Here an objective difference is described: a Waymo vehicle reacted to new visual information in a direction that a human driver would not be likely to be looking.

__loam 3y ago

They have multiple radars, lidars, and cameras. They're far more capable of detecting obstacles than people are.

wolverine876 3y ago
They have different capabilities, but it doesn't follow that such technology is better than the built-in tech in homo sapiens.
- __loam 3y ago
  It is demonstrably better. They see more and react faster. They can see around obstacles that humans can't and they never get tired or distracted.
  - ClumsyPilot 3y ago
    See more in the rain y dark? Sure. But can they look at a driver's face and realise that they are distracted with their phone and haven't seen you?
    - bumby 3y ago
      This is an important point. Humans have evolved a way to intuit the thoughts and behaviors of other drivers. It’s why people who are mentally ill are unsettling; it’s very hard to pick up on their intentions and course of action. That’s why in think the hurdle isn’t “better than the average human driver.” Because humans won’t trust a machine in the same way as another human, the level of safety for AVs may have to be much, much greater before the public as a whole trusts them with safety critical decisions.
    - __loam 3y ago
      Yes they can. They are absolutely capable of looking at gestures. That matters a lot more when you're trying to determine the intent of a pedestrian than a driver. If it's another driver, the system can also do real time physics calculations to avoid a vehicle straying into the av's trajectory. And they might even do some kind of computer vision with other drivers to determine intent. Also if another driver just hits the car because they were distracted, why would the AV be at fault? These are really sophisticated systems and they've really thought of a lot of issues. All of these companies have hundreds, if not thousands of engineers who have been working on this problem for over a decade, as well as an army of lawyers trying to get things into compliance. I don't think "well it can't do x as well as a human" is going to hold up in 10 or 20 years when these systems are clearly much safer. Human driven cars will eventually be uninsurable.

tim333 3y ago

Though Waymo et al aren't really competing with unusually good drivers, more with average drivers and they are probably safer there, on the roads they have been trained for. (one study - 100% reduction in the frequency of bodily injury claims and a 76% decrease in property damage -https://www.ktvu.com/news/waymo-says-its-driverless-cars-safer-than-those-driven-by-humans https://www.ktvu.com/news/waymo-says-its-driverless-cars-saf...)

prmoustache 3y ago
The thing is most drivers should not be allowed to drive given their low training, driving standard, general lack of empathy and/or medications or substance abuse issues but society incorrectly assume driving is a right while it should be considered a privilege you earn and that can be revoked anytime based on regular tests + eventual tickets. I estimate at around 20% the amount of drivers that really should be allowed to drive given their current driving standards. Possibly more could be allowed after additionnal training and showing better driving standards knowing their license is at risk.
- lynx23 3y ago
  Ahem... "lack of empathy", how do you plan to quantify/measure that. Also, I was under the impression that in most countries on this planet, the priviledge of being allowed to drive a car is handed out with the drivers licence, which in most countries, you actually have to have training and a test for. I also thought it was normal practice that these licenses also get revoked, based on tickets... The only gripe I have with the system is that elderly are not automatically subjected to a regular test of their mental faculties and remaining sight. I am getting sick of 90 year old grandmas killing 3 year olds "by accident".
  - prmoustache 3y ago
    > Ahem... "lack of empathy", how do you plan to quantify/measure that. That is a tricky one. > Also, I was under the impression that in most countries on this planet, the priviledge of being allowed to drive a car is handed out with the drivers licence, which in most countries, you actually have to have training and a test for. Training which varies a lot depending on the country. I did a lot of hours + 3000kms under supervision of my father + dedicated classes with emergency from 90kph to 0 braking on varying surfaces, including having 2 wheels on gravel and 2 wheels on pavement to be able to handle situations where the car would naturally go sideways. My Mexican partner in comparison took a handful of classes using an automatic car and only passed the test using a simulator and there you go she had her license. > I also thought it was normal practice that these licenses also get revoked, based on tickets... It needs an absurd amount of them for it to happen and we should still require periodic tests and knowledge refresh of the rules of the road. > I am getting sick of 90 year old grandmas killing 3 year olds "by accident". I am pretty sure they represent a marginal fraction of the accidents/killing compared to distracted drivers.

kaycebasques 3y ago

> I parked my van at an angle, so if it was hit from behind it should roll past him. Good tip!

oceanplexian 3y ago

> I'm not sure a machine would have noticed an odd lump next to a lamppost, with a civic rubbish bin next to it, in the rain. As opposed to what? You don’t have RADAR, or LIDAR, or echolocation, or any other way to “detect” a person in the road. You have human vision. This is the idea behind Tesla FSD. If human vision is good enough, computer vision is good enough. We have cameras that can approximate human vision. All the other companies using sensors are doing so as a crutch, because they didn’t have the chops to solve the vision problem.

n2d4 3y ago
The correct question to ask isn't "is computer vision enough", it's "if humans had LIDAR sensors, would they use them to cause fewer road accidents".
- gerdesj 3y ago
  I really don't need LIDAR. I have roughly 3 billion years of evolution and the end result - eyes, brain etc. LIDAR is simply a sensor and a very inferior one, in general, when compared to my visual system. For starters it needs something to interpret it. My eyes have a 52 year old brain stuffed with experience behind them and it isn't always a hindrance! I can reason about other people's driving style and react accordingly. I can also describe my actions and reasoning on internet forums. I really do not want an inferior sensor such as LIDAR inflicted on me, nor would I want it to be the sole source of information for something that conveys me.
thorncorona 3y ago
tesla vision doesn’t have an agi behind it though lol. and why gimp ourselves. if we had an extra sense to navigate with we would 100% be using it.
diffeomorphism 3y ago
A rock instead of a hammer is also probably "good enough". Still a bad idea.
gerdesj 3y ago

barrkel 3y ago

The yellow diamond with a black stripe puts you into "French priority to the right" mode and it's not restricted to France, it's pretty common across the continent. I like how it's indicated with road paint here in Switzerland, e.g. https://www.reddit.com/r/Switzerland/comments/wp6clo/who_has_the_right_of_way/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Switzerland/comments/wp6clo/who_has...