4 ms·
i know how companies go bankrupt in general :) In this specific case: - is there customer demand? Yes. ppl want to move around cheaply, safely and efficiently
by alooPotato 3y ago
i know how companies go bankrupt in general :)
In this specific case:
- is there customer demand? Yes. ppl want to move around cheaply, safely and efficiently
- is the technology capable? Yes. I've ridden in a waymo, it's great.
- what is the first principle cost of a ride? Lower than uber (which is a succesful business btw). Sure there is extra hardware but that goes down a lot at scale and you don't have to pay a driver which actually lowers your costs more than you think (no breaks, a lot less hardware in the car, etc)
I don't see anything structurally wrong with this business that makes me think it has a higher lilekihood of failure than any other random business. Sure a particular company may not execute well and go under, but I think there will be some sucesfful self driving companies in the future.
- phatskat 3y agoI think that future is a long way off for lost places. We haven’t seen these really proven to be ready for most urban environments. We haven’t seen them perform well in randomized conditions (road work, emergencies, marathons, critical masses, etc). We see them do well in good weather and predictable traffic conditions. I’d love to have better transit options, whatever that looks like (including driverless cars), I’m just skeptical of us getting there on a large scale anytime soon.
- alooPotato 3y agohave you ridden in one?
- phatskat 3y agoI have not, they aren’t in my city and I doubt we’ll see them for a while (decent rain, hellish snow conditions in the winter, potholes abound)
- alooPotato 3y agothen you can't say they are a long way off. I have and it's working. Right now. In a city with crazy traffic. And construction. And techno pessimists putting cones over their lidars. In the rain. 24/7. It's fucking incredible.