GDP, even GDPnow is a very trailing indicator. And NBER always declares recessions 6 months after the stock market has seen it and sold off. Stuff like this i

GDP, even GDPnow is a very trailing indicator. And NBER always declares recessions 6 months after the stock market has seen it and sold off. Stuff like this is where the worries about recessions are coming from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/high-car-loan-interest-rate-payments-americans-struggle-with-monthly-bills https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/high-car-... Combine that with looking around at the commercial real estate situation. Then there's the pretty historical tightening cycle the Fed just went through. Recessions usually hit 6-12 months after the Fed stops tightening, because it takes time for loans to roll over into the new interest rate regime and for the costs to really bite. And look around at all the companies that have been surviving off of cheap debt from ZIRP running at zero or negative return on capital / operational earnings while trying to grow at all costs who are now "right-sizing" and laying people off.