3 ms·

On the flip-side, we know we're easily fooled and that the scientific method is a barely sufficient set of tools to be fooled a lot less. There was a sea of pr

by mlyle 3y ago

On the flip-side, we know we're easily fooled and that the scientific method is a barely sufficient set of tools to be fooled a lot less. There was a sea of preprints pointing in different directions, and it was difficult to navigate and know whom to believe. Someone believing something strongly 3 years ago based on a few preprints is hardly vindicated for having great process when published research comes out validating that view now. IMO the only approach is to roll with the punches and to go "ehhhhh, mayyyybe." (And of course use the best weight of information we have now).

yieldcrv 3y ago
> There was a sea of preprints pointing in different directions, and it was difficult to navigate and know whom to believe. right, this was only obvious with particular education instead of relying on the educated, who were saying all sorts of random things in every direction.
- mlyle 3y ago
  > this was only obvious with particular education instead of relying on the educated, Hindsight bias. We tend to remember our intuitions when we were right, instead of fairly measuring them. Thus, we become convinced we are reliable and experts are not. Damage to other tissues, especially from mild illness, was a possibility that was neither well-supported nor well-refuted in 2020. It was clear there was morbidity risk, but the mechanism was not understood (and is still not well-understood) and the magnitude was also uncertain and confounded.
  - yieldcrv 3y ago
    I try to be aware of blind spots by subjecting myself to the same tests I put others through In this case, I started keeping logs of what people said what across social media. I noticed that they never revisit their theories and just go on to the next one. In one example, the people calling the existence of the virus fictional were same people that were having 5g hysteria for the next year, some of the same people that moved to theories that required the existence of that virus but to stick with issues about the vaccine. Everyone that took the vaccine is supposed to have dropped dead by now according to many individuals theories. But these are not being revisited, there is no “I was wrong about that” “what happened to 5g” “how come only a couple people have myocarditis problems in 2023 instead of 75% of the population, or more since the actual virus does the same thing” its just on to the next one so I try to revisit which theories I made to at least address them

by mlyle 3y ago

yieldcrv 3y ago

> There was a sea of preprints pointing in different directions, and it was difficult to navigate and know whom to believe. right, this was only obvious with particular education instead of relying on the educated, who were saying all sorts of random things in every direction.

mlyle 3y ago
> this was only obvious with particular education instead of relying on the educated, Hindsight bias. We tend to remember our intuitions when we were right, instead of fairly measuring them. Thus, we become convinced we are reliable and experts are not. Damage to other tissues, especially from mild illness, was a possibility that was neither well-supported nor well-refuted in 2020. It was clear there was morbidity risk, but the mechanism was not understood (and is still not well-understood) and the magnitude was also uncertain and confounded.
- yieldcrv 3y ago
  I try to be aware of blind spots by subjecting myself to the same tests I put others through In this case, I started keeping logs of what people said what across social media. I noticed that they never revisit their theories and just go on to the next one. In one example, the people calling the existence of the virus fictional were same people that were having 5g hysteria for the next year, some of the same people that moved to theories that required the existence of that virus but to stick with issues about the vaccine. Everyone that took the vaccine is supposed to have dropped dead by now according to many individuals theories. But these are not being revisited, there is no “I was wrong about that” “what happened to 5g” “how come only a couple people have myocarditis problems in 2023 instead of 75% of the population, or more since the actual virus does the same thing” its just on to the next one so I try to revisit which theories I made to at least address them