5 ms·

If EVs are the future and oil is done for, why would they delay?

bryanlarsen 3y ago
1. $4B is a massive commitment even to a company as big as GM. 2. Truck buyers are very conservative in both the political and non-political sense, making them much slower to adapt new technology. 3. Electric trucks haven't achieved product-market fit quite as well as electric cars have. Long range towing is a weak spot. 4. Electric trucks aren't as well designed as electric cars. The best example, the Lightning, has some issues like charging speed.
- newsclues 3y ago
  [flagged]
- oceanplexian 3y ago
  2. Technology doesn’t just mean “electric motors”. Technology also includes suspension, materials science, engine design, towing and hauling, and so on. Trucks like the RAM TRX and the Raptor are more technologically sophisticated than 99% of the stuff on the road. Try taking a Toyota Tacoma 80MPH over a jump off-road without breaking anything. Try hauling more than a travel trailer through a winter storm with a Rivian. It’ll become instantly clear what technology platform is superior.
- bdcravens 3y ago
  > Truck buyers are very conservative in both the political and non-political sense, making them much slower to adapt new technology. While there is some truth, this is a meme. In places like Texas, truck ownership cuts across many lifestyles. You're as likely to see an attorney or doctor drive an F-150 as opposed to the stereotypical Mercedes. Walk around the parking lot of tech companies in Austin - you'll still see trucks. > Electric trucks haven't achieved product-market fit quite as well as electric cars have. Long range towing is a weak spot. Many pickup owners will never tow anything. They may carry weight in their bed, but overall, they're rugged cars capable of non-paved terrain. For those using their truck for work, the Lightning actually provides some unique advantages over their gas counterparts, powering equipment.
  - bluedino 3y ago
    >> Many pickup owners will never tow anything. About 1/3rd of pickup trucks sold are to commercial buyers, though.
    - bdcravens 3y ago
      Sure, but that doesn't mean they're used for towing. Across a wide array of business types, they're used as rugged cars with a company logo on them.
      - bluedino 3y ago
        Those numbers include 3/4 and 1-ton trucks which are used for all kinds of commercial purposes, the might not "tow" but they are still carrying thousands of pounds of work equipment etc. Just because a truck isn't being used to a tow a trailer 24/7 doesn't mean it's just being used as a 'rugged car'.
        ElevenLathe 3y ago
        I don't think there are any announced plans for an 3/4 or 1 ton electric trucks, so these will be competing with the "overgrown passenger car" class of pickups, not the "miniature big rig" class.
        bryanlarsen 3y ago
        The Cybertruck is technically a medium duty truck, or at least it was according to the 2019 announcement specs.
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    The truck-driving doctors and lawyers I know are also the among the most conservative people I know.
  - zactato 3y ago
    Does it matter if they never tow anything? People want to be ABLE to tow something. Every truck commercial features giant trails or a loader dumping rocks into the bed. Probably <10% of pick up trucks owners ever do this, but people still like the image of having a truck than can do this.
paganel 3y ago
Because it doesn't make them money. Look at what sore state Volkswagen has put itself in when it comes to EVs: "Volkswagen to temporarily cut production of two EV models due to weaker demand -spokesperson" [1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-temporarily-pause-production-two-ev-car-models-due-drop-demand-2023-09-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...
- ReptileMan 3y ago
  I think that we are at the point of - everyone that likes electric cars already has one. And it neads a leap up in usability or leap down in price. From 1Up is strictly urban car, and the ID.x are tok damn expensive.
  - bravetraveler 3y ago
    It's going to take a majority of used ICE vehicles to reach disarray before I get an EV! It's not even that I'm against them specifically. Look at new ICE cars, useless features and upsells. EVs are doing that but taking it to another degree. Like with any new thing, terms change I can't help but think Car 2.0 is going to continue down this rent seeking/nearly hostile pattern I'd rather fall back to a rusted beater than buy one of these, under these terms. Someone makes a mostly low-tech EV? I may be interested
    - rudolph9 3y ago
      I’m in your boat. I’m tempted to buy a cyber truck and could probably accumulate the capital when I come up on the reservation list next year but the idea that I’m being tracked and I don’t “own” all the features in the car is really off putting to me. The ford lighting generally seems to be better in this regard but offer me the base model with longer range. I’m a big diy guy and I’m going to end up beating up a lot and I just want minimal features. For now I now I’ll stick with my 1996 K1500 6.5L diesel with 300k miles. It will probably run until I’m dead if I keep up basic maintenance.
      - 3y ago
gardaani 3y ago
Tesla delays construction of their Mexico factory, because Elon Musk is concerned about high interest rates. https://ts2.space/en/tesla-delays-construction-of-giga-mexico-factory-due-to-economic-factors/ https://ts2.space/en/tesla-delays-construction-of-giga-mexic...
- taylodl 3y ago
  Right? Interest rates are at their highest level in 20 years. That $4B will cost a lot more now than it may a year from now. This is not a good time for making such capital investments.
Roark66 3y ago
EVs will be "the future" when I can buy one with 180km km on the clock for ~3kEUR that I'll be able to use as a normal car I can expect to make a 350km motorway round trip driving at 140kmh without having to charge more than once for no more than ~20 min. At the moment EVs are a luxury item for the most of the people in the world.
- taylodl 3y ago
  What ICE vehicles are available in Europe with 180k km on the clock that's selling for ~3k EUR? Here in the States that kind of money gets you a car with 325k - 475k km on the clock. As you can imagine, there aren't many cars available in that price range and the ones that are have maybe 1-3 years of life left. Only the poor buy such vehicles because they live in a car-centric area lacking public transit.
  - Roark66 3y ago
    For example the one I bought 6 years ago. A VW golf 4x4 2.0 TDI 2005 with 180k km on the clock. I paid 16k pln, which was then about 3.5k EUR. Before you say, this was 6 years ago, I can tell you I just went to a popular used car sales site in Poland and when I put in 15k pln (~3.4k EUR) and no older than 2011 I got 1700 hits many like this https://www.otomoto.pl/osobowe/oferta/renault-megane-ID6FKwvZ.html https://www.otomoto.pl/osobowe/oferta/renault-megane-ID6FKwv... (a 1.7ctdi Renault megane 2012 for 14k pln). When I bought my car it was 12 years old, with one previous owner imported from the south of France(no snow/salt on winter roads). It has been 6 years, that car is now 18 years old and is approaching 210k km, in these 6 years I had to do the total of: -Replaced front springs -Replaced all 4 disc brakes -Replaced all 4 front bushings -replaced the egr valve -sealed a porous head with a coolant additive (that year 2005 is famous for porosity in their cast aluminum heads). Finally, for last 2 years I could hear slightly increased noise levels from the turbo, so it might need a replacement soon. Furthermore, parts like disk brakes or bushings can be bought here very cheaply, but still good quality. On average a third of the oem price and much better quality (yes, you can get them even cheaper, but then quality is not the same). Expensive parts like a turbo, or a "new" engine are all bought from used cars. When one buys such parts one usually buys from a reputable scraper that has a return policy etc. Over these 6 years I probably spent €2k on repairs (I did half of them by myself? So I hope you can understand how ridiculous a proposition it is for someone like me to buy new (although I could afford it without much difficulty. ) So I hope you
randomdata 3y ago
Why not delay? Things don't look all that rosy, economically speaking, for the predominate users of trucks right now. The factory investment is massive to find out that the market for trucks has cratered once it is finished.
nickik 3y ago
People are giving a lot of reasons. But what one should really pay attention to is batteries. GM has had a catastrophic time with their battery factory. Their Ultium factory has been far, far worse then they claimed a few years ago. I believe, quite simply, they wouldn't have the battery packs available even if they built the factory.

1. $4B is a massive commitment even to a company as big as GM. 2. Truck buyers are very conservative in both the political and non-political sense, making them much slower to adapt new technology. 3. Electric trucks haven't achieved product-market fit quite as well as electric cars have. Long range towing is a weak spot. 4. Electric trucks aren't as well designed as electric cars. The best example, the Lightning, has some issues like charging speed.

newsclues 3y ago
[flagged]
oceanplexian 3y ago
2. Technology doesn’t just mean “electric motors”. Technology also includes suspension, materials science, engine design, towing and hauling, and so on. Trucks like the RAM TRX and the Raptor are more technologically sophisticated than 99% of the stuff on the road. Try taking a Toyota Tacoma 80MPH over a jump off-road without breaking anything. Try hauling more than a travel trailer through a winter storm with a Rivian. It’ll become instantly clear what technology platform is superior.
bdcravens 3y ago
> Truck buyers are very conservative in both the political and non-political sense, making them much slower to adapt new technology. While there is some truth, this is a meme. In places like Texas, truck ownership cuts across many lifestyles. You're as likely to see an attorney or doctor drive an F-150 as opposed to the stereotypical Mercedes. Walk around the parking lot of tech companies in Austin - you'll still see trucks. > Electric trucks haven't achieved product-market fit quite as well as electric cars have. Long range towing is a weak spot. Many pickup owners will never tow anything. They may carry weight in their bed, but overall, they're rugged cars capable of non-paved terrain. For those using their truck for work, the Lightning actually provides some unique advantages over their gas counterparts, powering equipment.
- bluedino 3y ago
  >> Many pickup owners will never tow anything. About 1/3rd of pickup trucks sold are to commercial buyers, though.
  - bdcravens 3y ago
    Sure, but that doesn't mean they're used for towing. Across a wide array of business types, they're used as rugged cars with a company logo on them.
    - bluedino 3y ago
      Those numbers include 3/4 and 1-ton trucks which are used for all kinds of commercial purposes, the might not "tow" but they are still carrying thousands of pounds of work equipment etc. Just because a truck isn't being used to a tow a trailer 24/7 doesn't mean it's just being used as a 'rugged car'.
      - ElevenLathe 3y ago
        I don't think there are any announced plans for an 3/4 or 1 ton electric trucks, so these will be competing with the "overgrown passenger car" class of pickups, not the "miniature big rig" class.
        bryanlarsen 3y ago
        The Cybertruck is technically a medium duty truck, or at least it was according to the 2019 announcement specs.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  The truck-driving doctors and lawyers I know are also the among the most conservative people I know.
- zactato 3y ago
  Does it matter if they never tow anything? People want to be ABLE to tow something. Every truck commercial features giant trails or a loader dumping rocks into the bed. Probably <10% of pick up trucks owners ever do this, but people still like the image of having a truck than can do this.

paganel 3y ago

Because it doesn't make them money. Look at what sore state Volkswagen has put itself in when it comes to EVs: "Volkswagen to temporarily cut production of two EV models due to weaker demand -spokesperson" [1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-temporarily-pause-production-two-ev-car-models-due-drop-demand-2023-09-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...

ReptileMan 3y ago
I think that we are at the point of - everyone that likes electric cars already has one. And it neads a leap up in usability or leap down in price. From 1Up is strictly urban car, and the ID.x are tok damn expensive.
- bravetraveler 3y ago
  It's going to take a majority of used ICE vehicles to reach disarray before I get an EV! It's not even that I'm against them specifically. Look at new ICE cars, useless features and upsells. EVs are doing that but taking it to another degree. Like with any new thing, terms change I can't help but think Car 2.0 is going to continue down this rent seeking/nearly hostile pattern I'd rather fall back to a rusted beater than buy one of these, under these terms. Someone makes a mostly low-tech EV? I may be interested
  - rudolph9 3y ago
    I’m in your boat. I’m tempted to buy a cyber truck and could probably accumulate the capital when I come up on the reservation list next year but the idea that I’m being tracked and I don’t “own” all the features in the car is really off putting to me. The ford lighting generally seems to be better in this regard but offer me the base model with longer range. I’m a big diy guy and I’m going to end up beating up a lot and I just want minimal features. For now I now I’ll stick with my 1996 K1500 6.5L diesel with 300k miles. It will probably run until I’m dead if I keep up basic maintenance.
    - 3y ago

gardaani 3y ago

Tesla delays construction of their Mexico factory, because Elon Musk is concerned about high interest rates. https://ts2.space/en/tesla-delays-construction-of-giga-mexico-factory-due-to-economic-factors/ https://ts2.space/en/tesla-delays-construction-of-giga-mexic...

taylodl 3y ago
Right? Interest rates are at their highest level in 20 years. That $4B will cost a lot more now than it may a year from now. This is not a good time for making such capital investments.

Roark66 3y ago

EVs will be "the future" when I can buy one with 180km km on the clock for ~3kEUR that I'll be able to use as a normal car I can expect to make a 350km motorway round trip driving at 140kmh without having to charge more than once for no more than ~20 min. At the moment EVs are a luxury item for the most of the people in the world.

taylodl 3y ago
What ICE vehicles are available in Europe with 180k km on the clock that's selling for ~3k EUR? Here in the States that kind of money gets you a car with 325k - 475k km on the clock. As you can imagine, there aren't many cars available in that price range and the ones that are have maybe 1-3 years of life left. Only the poor buy such vehicles because they live in a car-centric area lacking public transit.
- Roark66 3y ago
  For example the one I bought 6 years ago. A VW golf 4x4 2.0 TDI 2005 with 180k km on the clock. I paid 16k pln, which was then about 3.5k EUR. Before you say, this was 6 years ago, I can tell you I just went to a popular used car sales site in Poland and when I put in 15k pln (~3.4k EUR) and no older than 2011 I got 1700 hits many like this https://www.otomoto.pl/osobowe/oferta/renault-megane-ID6FKwvZ.html https://www.otomoto.pl/osobowe/oferta/renault-megane-ID6FKwv... (a 1.7ctdi Renault megane 2012 for 14k pln). When I bought my car it was 12 years old, with one previous owner imported from the south of France(no snow/salt on winter roads). It has been 6 years, that car is now 18 years old and is approaching 210k km, in these 6 years I had to do the total of: -Replaced front springs -Replaced all 4 disc brakes -Replaced all 4 front bushings -replaced the egr valve -sealed a porous head with a coolant additive (that year 2005 is famous for porosity in their cast aluminum heads). Finally, for last 2 years I could hear slightly increased noise levels from the turbo, so it might need a replacement soon. Furthermore, parts like disk brakes or bushings can be bought here very cheaply, but still good quality. On average a third of the oem price and much better quality (yes, you can get them even cheaper, but then quality is not the same). Expensive parts like a turbo, or a "new" engine are all bought from used cars. When one buys such parts one usually buys from a reputable scraper that has a return policy etc. Over these 6 years I probably spent €2k on repairs (I did half of them by myself? So I hope you can understand how ridiculous a proposition it is for someone like me to buy new (although I could afford it without much difficulty. ) So I hope you

randomdata 3y ago

Why not delay? Things don't look all that rosy, economically speaking, for the predominate users of trucks right now. The factory investment is massive to find out that the market for trucks has cratered once it is finished.

nickik 3y ago

People are giving a lot of reasons. But what one should really pay attention to is batteries. GM has had a catastrophic time with their battery factory. Their Ultium factory has been far, far worse then they claimed a few years ago. I believe, quite simply, they wouldn't have the battery packs available even if they built the factory.