4 ms·

This observation is a bit morbid (apologies!), but it seems like the eventual deaths of baby boomers could put downward pressure on prices. Someone born in 1955

This observation is a bit morbid (apologies!), but it seems like the eventual deaths of baby boomers could put downward pressure on prices. Someone born in 1955 would be smack in the middle of that generation, with an average expected death date of 2029 (for a man) or 2033 (for a woman). Since people of that generation tend to own the most expensive homes, we could end up with too many expensive homes on the market at around the same time with not enough buyers able to purchase them without prices falling. But I am merely speculating.

yieldcrv 3y ago
a 10-15 or 20 year time horizon that relies on 60 year old children selling the houses that they receive as beneficiaries time to short mortgage backed securities folks /s this article did not specify time horizons, but for reference 10 years in the past was 2013 and 20 years in the past was 2003. the predictive quality of your observation has little utility because there are too many other variables in that time frame, it doesn't make a difference for anybody now to know that there might be a glut of housing a whole nother generation from now, in completely manageable price trends downward across decades. we're looking for a catalyst for a crash, now.
- BadCookie 3y ago
  I didn’t realize that I am only “allowed” to make comments with a short time horizon. Anyway, I wasn’t trying to give investment advice or make a concrete prediction. I’ve just seen a lot of people say that prices will never go down … and that’s what I question given demographics. There are several widows living in large houses alone in my immediate neighborhood, so just anecdotally, it seems like that situation has to change eventually. I think we’re actually in agreement that prices probably won’t tank any time soon—although if rates stay high enough for long enough and people simply can’t afford the payments, then something has to give. (It could be that wages will go up and we’ll have a bunch more inflation, though.)

yieldcrv 3y ago

a 10-15 or 20 year time horizon that relies on 60 year old children selling the houses that they receive as beneficiaries time to short mortgage backed securities folks /s this article did not specify time horizons, but for reference 10 years in the past was 2013 and 20 years in the past was 2003. the predictive quality of your observation has little utility because there are too many other variables in that time frame, it doesn't make a difference for anybody now to know that there might be a glut of housing a whole nother generation from now, in completely manageable price trends downward across decades. we're looking for a catalyst for a crash, now.

BadCookie 3y ago
I didn’t realize that I am only “allowed” to make comments with a short time horizon. Anyway, I wasn’t trying to give investment advice or make a concrete prediction. I’ve just seen a lot of people say that prices will never go down … and that’s what I question given demographics. There are several widows living in large houses alone in my immediate neighborhood, so just anecdotally, it seems like that situation has to change eventually. I think we’re actually in agreement that prices probably won’t tank any time soon—although if rates stay high enough for long enough and people simply can’t afford the payments, then something has to give. (It could be that wages will go up and we’ll have a bunch more inflation, though.)