Honestly I think we're close to there already, with the Play Store and App Store leading the charge. The giveaway is the amount of traffic generated by users i

Honestly I think we're close to there already, with the Play Store and App Store leading the charge. The giveaway is the amount of traffic generated by users in the second category is much lower than it used to be, while the first category grows. Just look at how much everyone here complains about their inability to find interesting things in this second tier today. Now that the VC money isn't going to prop up free stuff, or the ecosystem of dev tools to support free stuff, it's hard to see how the second lives on. What will be left is P2P, torrents, and psyops masquerading as organic meme wars, everything else will evaporate or migrate to the first tier.