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Recession Is About to Hit the US Economy: 3 Warnings Signs to Watch

4 points by pg_1234 3y ago

pg_1234 3y ago
https://archive.ph/rVZIT https://archive.ph/rVZIT
jonnycomputer 3y ago
Sure. One is always around the corner. Meanwhile: From BofA: Overall, the data flow since our last weekly pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.8% to 4.3% q/q saar. [Oct 20th estimate] From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Oct 19th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. [Oct 18th estimate] https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow BUT https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicator... is forecasting at least a mild recession.
- lamontcg 3y ago
  GDP, even GDPnow is a very trailing indicator. And NBER always declares recessions 6 months after the stock market has seen it and sold off. Stuff like this is where the worries about recessions are coming from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/high-car-loan-interest-rate-payments-americans-struggle-with-monthly-bills https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/high-car-... Combine that with looking around at the commercial real estate situation. Then there's the pretty historical tightening cycle the Fed just went through. Recessions usually hit 6-12 months after the Fed stops tightening, because it takes time for loans to roll over into the new interest rate regime and for the costs to really bite. And look around at all the companies that have been surviving off of cheap debt from ZIRP running at zero or negative return on capital / operational earnings while trying to grow at all costs who are now "right-sizing" and laying people off.
ChrisLTD 3y ago
Business Insider has predicted nine out of the last five recessions.
- harryquach 3y ago
  This one got me, well done

4 points by pg_1234 3y ago

https://archive.ph/rVZIT https://archive.ph/rVZIT

Sure. One is always around the corner. Meanwhile: From BofA: Overall, the data flow since our last weekly pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.8% to 4.3% q/q saar. [Oct 20th estimate] From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Oct 19th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. [Oct 18th estimate] https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow BUT https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicator... is forecasting at least a mild recession.

lamontcg 3y ago
GDP, even GDPnow is a very trailing indicator. And NBER always declares recessions 6 months after the stock market has seen it and sold off. Stuff like this is where the worries about recessions are coming from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/high-car-loan-interest-rate-payments-americans-struggle-with-monthly-bills https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/high-car-... Combine that with looking around at the commercial real estate situation. Then there's the pretty historical tightening cycle the Fed just went through. Recessions usually hit 6-12 months after the Fed stops tightening, because it takes time for loans to roll over into the new interest rate regime and for the costs to really bite. And look around at all the companies that have been surviving off of cheap debt from ZIRP running at zero or negative return on capital / operational earnings while trying to grow at all costs who are now "right-sizing" and laying people off.

ChrisLTD 3y ago

Business Insider has predicted nine out of the last five recessions.

harryquach 3y ago
This one got me, well done