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When they say "above average" temperature, does that mean anything from +0.0001 C to +20 C? Is this derived from some underlying prediction distribution of actu
by nerdponx 3y ago
When they say "above average" temperature, does that mean anything from +0.0001 C to +20 C? Is this derived from some underlying prediction distribution of actual temperatures, or is the prediction exclusively binary?
- olddustytrail 3y agoAbout 0.2 degrees C. Your second question is reminiscent of Baldrick asking how the war started. Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years.
- nerdponx 3y ago> About 0.2 degrees C. Is that a mean? a median? is that the mean predicted value among predicted values that lie above the average, or is that the overall mean prediction which happens to lie above average? Who's Baldrick? > Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years. That's a good question but it's a different question. I assumed there's some well-defined baseline average in use here. My question was about what the predicted deviations from that average.
- eszed 3y agoBaldrick is a character in the British comic-history TV series Blackadder. If you don't know about Blackadder, then I'm not going to tell you anything more, except that you're lucky to have them all to watch for the first time.
- fwungy 3y agoGlobal Warming will kick in in two more years.
- zuzun 3y agoThey perform several model runs with slightly different configurations and then compare the predictions to a reference period, currently 1991-2020. When they say "above average", most model runs fell in the upper tercile of the reference period and the probability is derived from the fraction.
- nerdponx 3y agoThanks, is there a summary of this methodology somewhere? Some established climate forecasting textbook? A good literature review?