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If we expect 1 crash per 200k mi, and the car has driven 200k mi, the evidence we have has sample size 1 ...
by dwiel 15y ago
If we expect 1 crash per 200k mi, and the car has driven 200k mi, the evidence we have has sample size 1 ...
- Symmetry 15y agoWe only have a sample size of one for the 1 crash per 200k miles case. So the evidence that these cars are actually _better_ than humans is non-existent. However, the evidence against the 1 crash per 100k miles case where the car is no longer comparable to human error rates is at least suggestive. And the evidence against the 1 crash per 20k miles case is actually pretty decent. I chose my words carefully.
- dailyllama 15y agoAnd the human crash rate is in all times of day, and all forms of weather. The rate for daytime, clear weather driving is almost certainly even better than 1 per 200k vehicle-miles.
- Homunculiheaded 15y agoWe can also look at it from the perspective of the geometric distribution: if the P(Crash) = 1/200k for each mile driven there is around a 36% chance that the car would have made it 200k miles without a crash.