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Something is going to break. It will be prices or rates. My guess is prices will fall precipitously and it will happen soon. I further posit that prices will no

Something is going to break. It will be prices or rates. My guess is prices will fall precipitously and it will happen soon. I further posit that prices will not be "sticky" as they typically are due to the extreme nature of the imbalance. Once the alarm sounds for the exits, it will be stampede verses an orderly departure. Having sold a home (foreclosure we bought in 2009) in 2021, I am super happy to be renting again. Owning a home is pain in the ass and I say this a person that can remodel a bathroom, install flooring, and fix my own A/C if needed. Constantly on the hook for every problem that invariably crops up is giant time, energy and money drain. My wife on the other hand, hates renting. She wants to paint the walls and decorate... and nest? We end up spending a crap ton of our time and money on the house. It's 100% emotional for her. I understand, but I don't share those emotions. We have had lots of time to talk about it and it will be different when we buy again. She will have a budget for house stuff and I will not be on the hook for every little thing. In short, she is going to step up for maintenance if she wants to buy a house again.

empath-nirvana 3y ago
Homeowners aren't going to sell into a market with precipitously declining prices. The market will just freeze up. This is probably the primary reason house prices haven't adjusted. People who have low rates locked in aren't selling their houses to buy new houses, because they would be taking a huge loss to do so. The only thing that's going to cause prices to drop are: rising interest rates + declining rental rates causing rental units to become unprofitable and go back on the market, or a wave of foreclosures, which seems unlikely given how many homes have very low rate mortgages right now. I don't think either of those are going to lead to a precipitous decline.
- monkmartinez 3y ago
  > Homeowners aren't going to sell into a market with precipitously declining prices. If they "need" to move they will. Lose the ability to pay property taxes, baby boomer's departing earth, AirBnBust, raising insurance rates, job loss, and many other reasons... The market is frozen right now. Mainstream media is lying to us, Realtors are manipulating the listings, Homebuilders are playing games with listings, accounting and land. The charade will not hold up for much longer.
preommr 3y ago
> It will be prices or rates. If rates break, this problem will come back up again in the near future exactly as it is now or even worse. Inflation and everything else in the economy would create more uncertainty which causes even more problems for housing prices.
- monkmartinez 3y ago
  Agreed! I believe prices will break before rates, the FED has to break something to course correct. They know a loosening cycle would absolutely demolish what is left of the economy. Rates will be higher for longer.
bane 3y ago
> It will be prices or rates. It'll probably be neither. Prices will likely stay flat, rates will do whatever they want. What will change is people's expectations of how long it takes for a house to sell. It's not uncommon in non-big coastal urban areas for homes to sit for months, and until recently that wasn't uncommon. The anomaly has been the recent trend of "put on market, receive 5 offers before the end of the day".

empath-nirvana 3y ago

Homeowners aren't going to sell into a market with precipitously declining prices. The market will just freeze up. This is probably the primary reason house prices haven't adjusted. People who have low rates locked in aren't selling their houses to buy new houses, because they would be taking a huge loss to do so. The only thing that's going to cause prices to drop are: rising interest rates + declining rental rates causing rental units to become unprofitable and go back on the market, or a wave of foreclosures, which seems unlikely given how many homes have very low rate mortgages right now. I don't think either of those are going to lead to a precipitous decline.

monkmartinez 3y ago
> Homeowners aren't going to sell into a market with precipitously declining prices. If they "need" to move they will. Lose the ability to pay property taxes, baby boomer's departing earth, AirBnBust, raising insurance rates, job loss, and many other reasons... The market is frozen right now. Mainstream media is lying to us, Realtors are manipulating the listings, Homebuilders are playing games with listings, accounting and land. The charade will not hold up for much longer.

preommr 3y ago

> It will be prices or rates. If rates break, this problem will come back up again in the near future exactly as it is now or even worse. Inflation and everything else in the economy would create more uncertainty which causes even more problems for housing prices.

monkmartinez 3y ago
Agreed! I believe prices will break before rates, the FED has to break something to course correct. They know a loosening cycle would absolutely demolish what is left of the economy. Rates will be higher for longer.

bane 3y ago

> It will be prices or rates. It'll probably be neither. Prices will likely stay flat, rates will do whatever they want. What will change is people's expectations of how long it takes for a house to sell. It's not uncommon in non-big coastal urban areas for homes to sit for months, and until recently that wasn't uncommon. The anomaly has been the recent trend of "put on market, receive 5 offers before the end of the day".