4 ms·

This is interesting but largely a rephrasing of this original source: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-wetter-south-warmer-north https://www.

This is interesting but largely a rephrasing of this original source: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-wetter-south-warmer-north https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-wetter-s...

zuzun 3y ago
If anyone is interested in these seasonal forecasts, all major meteorological institutes upload theirs to https://www.wmolc.org https://www.wmolc.org, with new predictions coming out every month.
- lamontcg 3y ago
  You can get technical ENSO specific forecasts here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/l... Which you can find from here which has a bunch of other information: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#discussion https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ens... Which you can find from the forecast tab from the main landing page for ENSO on the NOAA PSL site: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/ https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/
nerdponx 3y ago
When they say "above average" temperature, does that mean anything from +0.0001 C to +20 C? Is this derived from some underlying prediction distribution of actual temperatures, or is the prediction exclusively binary?
- olddustytrail 3y ago
  About 0.2 degrees C. Your second question is reminiscent of Baldrick asking how the war started. Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years.
  - nerdponx 3y ago
    > About 0.2 degrees C. Is that a mean? a median? is that the mean predicted value among predicted values that lie above the average, or is that the overall mean prediction which happens to lie above average? Who's Baldrick? > Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years. That's a good question but it's a different question. I assumed there's some well-defined baseline average in use here. My question was about what the predicted deviations from that average.
    - eszed 3y ago
      Baldrick is a character in the British comic-history TV series Blackadder. If you don't know about Blackadder, then I'm not going to tell you anything more, except that you're lucky to have them all to watch for the first time.
- fwungy 3y ago
  Global Warming will kick in in two more years.
- zuzun 3y ago
  They perform several model runs with slightly different configurations and then compare the predictions to a reference period, currently 1991-2020. When they say "above average", most model runs fell in the upper tercile of the reference period and the probability is derived from the fraction.
  - nerdponx 3y ago
    Thanks, is there a summary of this methodology somewhere? Some established climate forecasting textbook? A good literature review?

zuzun 3y ago

If anyone is interested in these seasonal forecasts, all major meteorological institutes upload theirs to https://www.wmolc.org https://www.wmolc.org, with new predictions coming out every month.

lamontcg 3y ago
You can get technical ENSO specific forecasts here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/l... Which you can find from here which has a bunch of other information: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#discussion https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ens... Which you can find from the forecast tab from the main landing page for ENSO on the NOAA PSL site: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/ https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/

nerdponx 3y ago

When they say "above average" temperature, does that mean anything from +0.0001 C to +20 C? Is this derived from some underlying prediction distribution of actual temperatures, or is the prediction exclusively binary?

olddustytrail 3y ago
About 0.2 degrees C. Your second question is reminiscent of Baldrick asking how the war started. Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years.
- nerdponx 3y ago
  > About 0.2 degrees C. Is that a mean? a median? is that the mean predicted value among predicted values that lie above the average, or is that the overall mean prediction which happens to lie above average? Who's Baldrick? > Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years. That's a good question but it's a different question. I assumed there's some well-defined baseline average in use here. My question was about what the predicted deviations from that average.
  - eszed 3y ago
    Baldrick is a character in the British comic-history TV series Blackadder. If you don't know about Blackadder, then I'm not going to tell you anything more, except that you're lucky to have them all to watch for the first time.
fwungy 3y ago
Global Warming will kick in in two more years.
zuzun 3y ago
They perform several model runs with slightly different configurations and then compare the predictions to a reference period, currently 1991-2020. When they say "above average", most model runs fell in the upper tercile of the reference period and the probability is derived from the fraction.
- nerdponx 3y ago
  Thanks, is there a summary of this methodology somewhere? Some established climate forecasting textbook? A good literature review?