2 ms·
I don't expect it to make its investors money because most VC-style startups don't make money and also because it seems to me to be kind of a dumb idea for a fe
by seanhunter 3y ago
I don't expect it to make its investors money because most VC-style startups don't make money and also because it seems to me to be kind of a dumb idea for a few reasons.
1)Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think their IP has any kind of protectable moat. I really can't see that patent surviving any sort of challenge. So if tehy figure out a business model that works it will get cloned cheaper.
2)It's an actuarial fact that people overpay for insurance relative to expectation but here they are essentially selling a partial mitigation for a very high severity very low probability event[1]. So the expectation is very low and is highly subject to model calibration error. Potential customers are not going to value this well and I don't see people paying them enough to stay in business.
I could easily be wrong about both of those things.
I know about selling the mission "Making the world a better place with extensible mobile, social, local middleware APIs" etc as I think the TV show "Silicon Valley" parodied it. Just in this case I dont' really see either the mission or the commercial reality making much sense.
It's interesting that the board of advisors has Ben "I'm gonna bring the mammoth back to life" Lamm and David "Make the statue of Liberty disappear" Copperfield on it. So they've got Barnum and Bailey going for them at least.
[1] "I'm selling you a backup that would survive even if humanity gets wiped out" isn't a business proposition. Noone cares about what their backups do under those circumstances so they won't pay for it.