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They’re trying to cover up a massive crash, in real estate especially. They’re also preparing for war over Taiwan amidst tightening US sanctions. Long term for

They’re trying to cover up a massive crash, in real estate especially. They’re also preparing for war over Taiwan amidst tightening US sanctions. Long term for the country it is terrible strategy, unfortunately short term for the dictator and his cronies it is profitable.

kyleyeats 3y ago
The China and the US are both doing this in some kind of twisted PR standoff. The only way anything the US is doing makes any sense is through this lens.
- grey-area 3y ago
  This is not just PR, it's real and the current trade war is likely to lead to real war in the next few years.
roenxi 3y ago
If they are trying to cover up a crash, it'll be a typical example of why centralised control fails so hard at economics. A crash isn't like a storm or something where a new force appears; it is a recognition that past decisions were not as effective as people at the time thought. Trying to fight a crash just keeps people doing destructive work for longer instead of moving on and finding some other activity.
- grey-area 3y ago
  Yes I agree, but in a dictatorship the interests of the country and the interests of those at the top are not aligned. Another example of this recently - imprisoning your top entrepreneurs is a great way to ensure that your tech industry completely dies, but only over a long time frame as nobody comes up to replace the current companies (they all leave if they can). In the short term it offers great opportunities to enrich the leadership at the expense of all that wealth generated in previous decades, and at the expense of course of the country's future wealth. So long term a disastrous decision for the country, short term it pays out for the current leaders if their cover up domestically is sufficiently thorough and there are other events to distract the populace (e.g. expansion through war).
  - graemep 3y ago
    > in a dictatorship the interests of the country and the interests of those at the top are not aligned. I wish that was a problem only in dictatorships. > long term a disastrous decision for the country, short term it pays out for the current leaders if their cover up Dictators will remain in charge long term. To that extent their interests are better aligned with those of the country. I decision that will be bad in the medium term can be quite good for the ruling party in a democracy if they lose the next election and can persuade the electorate to blame whoever is in charge at the time.
    - RandomLensman 3y ago
      No, not how dictatorships work. They usually work by keeping the supporting 2nd layer below the dictor happy and under control, which has nothing to do with country as such. Coincidentally, things could align, but they often don't.
      - natmaka 3y ago
        Isn't Chinese history the elephant in the room here? IMHO most Chinese citizens remember that whenever they fight each other (civil war...) disasters happen, and therefore the most important mission of the government is to squash any growing quarrel. Everything else is ancillary.
        RandomLensman 3y ago
        No, why would it? A mix of local ineptitude and revisionist history isn't really saying anything about the counterfactual. Why is China not as rich as the West if it has had the better governance for a long time?
        secondcoming 3y ago
        > Why is China not as rich as the West I find this hard to believe
powerapple 3y ago
there are people thinking government should leave economy alone, there are people thinking central banks should use financial tools to control inflation and other things. China is not covering up, it is trying to control a crash.
- grey-area 3y ago
  The lack of any reliable data specifically is a cover up, that is what the article is about.

kyleyeats 3y ago

The China and the US are both doing this in some kind of twisted PR standoff. The only way anything the US is doing makes any sense is through this lens.

grey-area 3y ago
This is not just PR, it's real and the current trade war is likely to lead to real war in the next few years.

roenxi 3y ago

If they are trying to cover up a crash, it'll be a typical example of why centralised control fails so hard at economics. A crash isn't like a storm or something where a new force appears; it is a recognition that past decisions were not as effective as people at the time thought. Trying to fight a crash just keeps people doing destructive work for longer instead of moving on and finding some other activity.

grey-area 3y ago
Yes I agree, but in a dictatorship the interests of the country and the interests of those at the top are not aligned. Another example of this recently - imprisoning your top entrepreneurs is a great way to ensure that your tech industry completely dies, but only over a long time frame as nobody comes up to replace the current companies (they all leave if they can). In the short term it offers great opportunities to enrich the leadership at the expense of all that wealth generated in previous decades, and at the expense of course of the country's future wealth. So long term a disastrous decision for the country, short term it pays out for the current leaders if their cover up domestically is sufficiently thorough and there are other events to distract the populace (e.g. expansion through war).
- graemep 3y ago
  > in a dictatorship the interests of the country and the interests of those at the top are not aligned. I wish that was a problem only in dictatorships. > long term a disastrous decision for the country, short term it pays out for the current leaders if their cover up Dictators will remain in charge long term. To that extent their interests are better aligned with those of the country. I decision that will be bad in the medium term can be quite good for the ruling party in a democracy if they lose the next election and can persuade the electorate to blame whoever is in charge at the time.
  - RandomLensman 3y ago
    No, not how dictatorships work. They usually work by keeping the supporting 2nd layer below the dictor happy and under control, which has nothing to do with country as such. Coincidentally, things could align, but they often don't.
    - natmaka 3y ago
      Isn't Chinese history the elephant in the room here? IMHO most Chinese citizens remember that whenever they fight each other (civil war...) disasters happen, and therefore the most important mission of the government is to squash any growing quarrel. Everything else is ancillary.
      - RandomLensman 3y ago
        No, why would it? A mix of local ineptitude and revisionist history isn't really saying anything about the counterfactual. Why is China not as rich as the West if it has had the better governance for a long time?
        secondcoming 3y ago
        > Why is China not as rich as the West I find this hard to believe

powerapple 3y ago

there are people thinking government should leave economy alone, there are people thinking central banks should use financial tools to control inflation and other things. China is not covering up, it is trying to control a crash.

grey-area 3y ago
The lack of any reliable data specifically is a cover up, that is what the article is about.