> A lot of research has been done on this and there's been been discussions if it is things like the decrease of lead in the air, abortions, or other things, bu

> A lot of research has been done on this and there's been been discussions if it is things like the decrease of lead in the air, abortions, or other things, but generally it doesn't seem that "tough on crime" was the dominating factor. On the contrary, COVID-19 didn’t suddenly reintroduce lead, ban abortion (that came a few years later, in only a few places, setting up a natural experiment we haven’t yet seen the results of), or do anything more than shut down schools and shatter the police-public relationship. Post-Ferguson we knew what happens after anti-police protests (more murders). https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crime-ferguson-effects-murder https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim... (To be precise, -300 police killings +1000 to +6000 community-based killings) The current trend looks like Ferguson effect followed by cities suddenly deciding to take murder seriously again. Portland is having success with focused deterrence and cure violence/credible messengers. Hard to say if that’s diverging from nationwide trends because loads of other cities are taking the same approach. None of that challenges the idea that post-90s crime declines were fueled by more intensive policing.