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> That sounds to me like it's very much a question about perception rather than statistics. Of course, people rarely base that kind of belief on hard evidence:

by Kamq 3y ago

> That sounds to me like it's very much a question about perception rather than statistics. Of course, people rarely base that kind of belief on hard evidence: a single incident that happened to a friend of a friend might be enough to make you say "I'm never walking in that neighborhood at night". Wouldn't the perception track the statistics in the scenario you've lined out? More people being stabbed, for example, results in more friends and friends of friends being unwilling to take a walk in that area. I mean, you can have an outlier, a very popular person who triggers more friends/friends of friends, but on average, it seems like perception wouldn't be the worst way to measure this under the scenario you've laid out.

lazyasciiart 3y ago
No. Perception tracks publicity of incidents - I know some people still warning others off a neighborhood they were mugged in 20 years ago, but they don’t mention how long ago it was when they say it’s dangerous. So for instance when a group of well off people move into a depressed neighborhood, there might be the same number of muggings, but 10 times as much talk about it because these people go to the police and write to the paper about it.
- Kamq 3y ago
  > I know some people still warning others off a neighborhood they were mugged in 20 years ago, but they don’t mention how long ago it was when they say it’s dangerous. But, like, wouldn't a neighborhood with a lot of muggings be more likely to have more people doing that? > So for instance when a group of well off people move into a depressed neighborhood, there might be the same number of muggings, but 10 times as much talk about it because these people go to the police and write to the paper about it. That seems like a valid explanation for a single neighborhood that just started gentrifying, but seems unlikely to be common enough to disrupt the correlation that I'm talking about globally.
  - lazyasciiart 3y ago
    Globally, probably not. In the US? Yes, I think it is common enough to be the major cause.

by Kamq 3y ago

lazyasciiart 3y ago

No. Perception tracks publicity of incidents - I know some people still warning others off a neighborhood they were mugged in 20 years ago, but they don’t mention how long ago it was when they say it’s dangerous. So for instance when a group of well off people move into a depressed neighborhood, there might be the same number of muggings, but 10 times as much talk about it because these people go to the police and write to the paper about it.

Kamq 3y ago
> I know some people still warning others off a neighborhood they were mugged in 20 years ago, but they don’t mention how long ago it was when they say it’s dangerous. But, like, wouldn't a neighborhood with a lot of muggings be more likely to have more people doing that? > So for instance when a group of well off people move into a depressed neighborhood, there might be the same number of muggings, but 10 times as much talk about it because these people go to the police and write to the paper about it. That seems like a valid explanation for a single neighborhood that just started gentrifying, but seems unlikely to be common enough to disrupt the correlation that I'm talking about globally.
- lazyasciiart 3y ago
  Globally, probably not. In the US? Yes, I think it is common enough to be the major cause.