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Behold, Simpsons Paradox in action! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox Perhaps homicides are r

Behold, Simpsons Paradox in action! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox Perhaps homicides are rapidly decreasing overall. Meanwhile in Seattle surpassed 2022’s record setting homicide count with 3 months to spare. Seattle has roughly 2x the pre-pandemic homicide count. And roughly triple the count from 10 years ago. Is the rate declining nationally? Maybe! Is that going to impact news coverages in areas where it is not decreasing? Absolutely not. Should it? Obviously no. https://www.kuow.org/stories/seattle-homicides-set-record-but-king-county-has-big-plans-and-lots-of-funding-to-prevent-gun-violence https://www.kuow.org/stories/seattle-homicides-set-record-bu... https://www.elmundous.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ErvchObVkAID8tG.jpeg https://www.elmundous.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ErvchOb...

_delirium 3y ago
Also increasing at an alarming pace in DC: https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance Is there a strong association between local crime rates (and/or direction of change) and local perceptions though? As far as I can tell, it’s quite common among New Yorkers to think crime is rising too, even though it really is falling in NYC, unlike Seattle and DC. But I have not seen a quantitative study correlating these. Are people who live in areas where crime actually is rising more likely to think it is?
- forrestthewoods 3y ago
  Honestly? It’s impossible to say due to lack of data. Homicides are well tracked. They’re either up or down. It varies by locale. Petty theft and similar isn’t tracked. Everyone in a city knows the police can not and will not do anything about it. Small crimes simply are not reported. It’s a waste of time. The only data we have is anecdata. If someone uses stats to claim non-violent crime is down they’re full of shit. They don’t know. If someone says it’s up they’re relying on anecdotes. So maybe true, maybe false. Lies, damned lies, and statistics. :(

_delirium 3y ago

Also increasing at an alarming pace in DC: https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance Is there a strong association between local crime rates (and/or direction of change) and local perceptions though? As far as I can tell, it’s quite common among New Yorkers to think crime is rising too, even though it really is falling in NYC, unlike Seattle and DC. But I have not seen a quantitative study correlating these. Are people who live in areas where crime actually is rising more likely to think it is?

forrestthewoods 3y ago
Honestly? It’s impossible to say due to lack of data. Homicides are well tracked. They’re either up or down. It varies by locale. Petty theft and similar isn’t tracked. Everyone in a city knows the police can not and will not do anything about it. Small crimes simply are not reported. It’s a waste of time. The only data we have is anecdata. If someone uses stats to claim non-violent crime is down they’re full of shit. They don’t know. If someone says it’s up they’re relying on anecdotes. So maybe true, maybe false. Lies, damned lies, and statistics. :(