6 ms·

Only if you make insurance claims. I’ve had many things stolen and I’ve never made any claims. Or filed any reports.

vore 3y ago
Sure, but what matters is if they track the actual crime rate right? If you’ve never made any claims then you’ve never been a significant data point to begin with.
- explaininjs 3y ago
  I fear you’re Goodharting this into oblivion. The only endgame of “people who don’t make claims aren’t significant” is police becoming so inept as to never secure property or arrest thrives (already there), and insurance companies having such massive premium hikes on-incident as to make filing claims net-negative in all but the most egregious cases (approaching there).
  - Retric 3y ago
    The most egregious cases are where you get the best data from insurance. But different metrics work for less violent crimes. You can validate the decline of pickpockets in the rates people replace their driver’s licenses etc.
Retric 3y ago
That’s always been the case for minor crimes, but people will make a claim if their house burns down or a car is stolen.
- explaininjs 3y ago
  How happy should we be if people in-mass give up on the police and light property crime increases by 1000%, reports of such are eliminated, but car theft stays constant and the overall numbers decrease? That is the direction we are headed.
  - gavinray 3y ago
    This is wholly irrelevant and I don't want to "uhm, ackshually" here but just fyi it's "en masse" though everyone knows what you mean
  - Retric 3y ago
    Car theft, arson, etc are down dramatically not just flat. https://www.statista.com/statistics/191216/reported-motor-vehicle-theft-rate-in-the-us-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/191216/reported-motor-ve... Motor vehicle theft per 100k people 1990: 657 vs 2021: 268. That’s a 60% drop, even with the recent spike. Which is why you always hear crime rates compared across short periods, they wouldn’t seem bad by historic standards. Your proposal around light property crime is simply wrong. You don’t need to trust police statistics for validation pickpockets used to be endemic in NYC to the point where people chained their wallets to their pants. Things have fallen so far we see cultural norms changing. That isn’t to say every city or every year sees an improvement but the long term trends are really clear. Granted the existence of cellphones means they get stolen, but that’s more than offset by car radio theft practically disappearing.
    - somenameforme 3y ago
      Beware of cherry picked data. It's not statista doing it, but whoever they sourced their data from choosing to start at 1990. Here [1] are the same data (from the FBI) from 1960, instead of 1990. 1990 was not a historical rate, but the result of an exceptionally sharp spike in crime that began in 1960. In 1960 motor vehicle theft rates were 183. The statista table (which goes until 2021 instead of 2019 from my source) shows today they're at 268 and trending upwards. I really wish I could find data prior to 1960, but I guess you probably end up with a poor signal:noise ratio at some point. Those data are all from the same source, so have meaningful comparability. In any case, the long term trends are anything but clear. Crime rates currently look something like an eccentric sine wave. People in 200 years sure will have it easier, data wise. [1] - https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
      - 3y ago
- oooyay 3y ago
  I think that depends. If someone breaks a car window or spray paints a fence it's likely cheaper to repair it yourself if your deductible is 500-1000. People are also cognizant that if you ever report anything to insurance that your insurance sky rockets so they're less likely to report. Paying $500-$1000 would not be "minor" to me, but is minor in a crime sense.
- aikinai 3y ago
  How many people actually have theft on their insurance? My car was stolen so of course I called insurance right after the police (who didn’t show up for six hours). But the insurance company just said, “You don’t have theft on your policy, but okay we noted it’s no longer in your possession.” Maybe that would show up in stats? Not sure.

vore 3y ago

Sure, but what matters is if they track the actual crime rate right? If you’ve never made any claims then you’ve never been a significant data point to begin with.

explaininjs 3y ago
I fear you’re Goodharting this into oblivion. The only endgame of “people who don’t make claims aren’t significant” is police becoming so inept as to never secure property or arrest thrives (already there), and insurance companies having such massive premium hikes on-incident as to make filing claims net-negative in all but the most egregious cases (approaching there).
- Retric 3y ago
  The most egregious cases are where you get the best data from insurance. But different metrics work for less violent crimes. You can validate the decline of pickpockets in the rates people replace their driver’s licenses etc.

Retric 3y ago

That’s always been the case for minor crimes, but people will make a claim if their house burns down or a car is stolen.

explaininjs 3y ago
How happy should we be if people in-mass give up on the police and light property crime increases by 1000%, reports of such are eliminated, but car theft stays constant and the overall numbers decrease? That is the direction we are headed.
- gavinray 3y ago
  This is wholly irrelevant and I don't want to "uhm, ackshually" here but just fyi it's "en masse" though everyone knows what you mean
- Retric 3y ago
  Car theft, arson, etc are down dramatically not just flat. https://www.statista.com/statistics/191216/reported-motor-vehicle-theft-rate-in-the-us-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/191216/reported-motor-ve... Motor vehicle theft per 100k people 1990: 657 vs 2021: 268. That’s a 60% drop, even with the recent spike. Which is why you always hear crime rates compared across short periods, they wouldn’t seem bad by historic standards. Your proposal around light property crime is simply wrong. You don’t need to trust police statistics for validation pickpockets used to be endemic in NYC to the point where people chained their wallets to their pants. Things have fallen so far we see cultural norms changing. That isn’t to say every city or every year sees an improvement but the long term trends are really clear. Granted the existence of cellphones means they get stolen, but that’s more than offset by car radio theft practically disappearing.
  - somenameforme 3y ago
    Beware of cherry picked data. It's not statista doing it, but whoever they sourced their data from choosing to start at 1990. Here [1] are the same data (from the FBI) from 1960, instead of 1990. 1990 was not a historical rate, but the result of an exceptionally sharp spike in crime that began in 1960. In 1960 motor vehicle theft rates were 183. The statista table (which goes until 2021 instead of 2019 from my source) shows today they're at 268 and trending upwards. I really wish I could find data prior to 1960, but I guess you probably end up with a poor signal:noise ratio at some point. Those data are all from the same source, so have meaningful comparability. In any case, the long term trends are anything but clear. Crime rates currently look something like an eccentric sine wave. People in 200 years sure will have it easier, data wise. [1] - https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
    - 3y ago
oooyay 3y ago
I think that depends. If someone breaks a car window or spray paints a fence it's likely cheaper to repair it yourself if your deductible is 500-1000. People are also cognizant that if you ever report anything to insurance that your insurance sky rockets so they're less likely to report. Paying $500-$1000 would not be "minor" to me, but is minor in a crime sense.
aikinai 3y ago
How many people actually have theft on their insurance? My car was stolen so of course I called insurance right after the police (who didn’t show up for six hours). But the insurance company just said, “You don’t have theft on your policy, but okay we noted it’s no longer in your possession.” Maybe that would show up in stats? Not sure.