7 ms·

Nope. It's on its way down towards pre-covid levels, but still (by the article's estimate for 2023) 10% higher than pre-covid. Such a bad headline. Look at t

by oofbey 3y ago

Nope. It's on its way down towards pre-covid levels, but still (by the article's estimate for 2023) 10% higher than pre-covid. Such a bad headline. Look at the raw data at https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim... Pre-covid, around 4.5 - 5.5 per 100k ppl per year. 2020 jumped up to 6.5 2021 up to 6.8 2022 down to 6.3 - AMAZING DROP! 2023 ~5.5 (based on estimated 12% drop)- AMAZING DROP!!! WHY AREN'T PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT HOW MUCH CRIME IS GOING DOWN!?!?! Hard to tell how much of this is simply inept journalism, and how much is fed by a broken incentive system.

Mistletoe 3y ago
I don’t know, I’m pretty excited about 6.8 to 5.5. What would you suggest/like to see?
- maxniederhofer 3y ago
  0. We'd like to see 0
  - jrflowers 3y ago
    Yes, we should aspire to a murder rate seen only in the asteroid belt and other places uninhabited by humans. Recreating those circumstances would temporarily raise the homicide rate in a given year but it would drop to 0 in the next.
  - oivey 3y ago
    What’s your plan for that? I was going to say maybe put every single American in prison, but even that probably wouldn’t work.
    - giantg2 3y ago
      Homicide rates in jails or prisons are only slightly lower than the population in general.
      - lelanthran 3y ago
        > Homicide rates in jails or prisons are only slightly lower than the population in general. That's concerning; if we're forcing people into each others space, we should at least prevent them from killing each other.
  - hindsightbias 3y ago
    There’s always going to be a stabby techie taking you from 0 to 1.
- srinivgp 3y ago
  It contextualized, of course. <= 2019: 4.5-5.5 == 2023: ~5.5 (between: significantly higher, also COVID, probably not a coincidence)
- piyush_soni 3y ago
  Of course, to the level of other saner countries?
  - SV_BubbleTime 3y ago
    Our drug economy alone is larger than a lot of “more civilized” countries. But we can’t talk about that. Only look at murder as some naturally occurring phenomenon.
- penjelly 3y ago
  it seemed obvious from his comment? He wants a drop to BELOW precovid levels because covid was the correlated with a sharp increase and covids effects on society at large have now (mostly) subsided
- rthomas6 3y ago
  Personally I would like to see us go below countries like Afghanistan (4.0), Argentina (4.6), Kenya (5.3), Iran (2.4), Israel (1.9), Palestine (0.9), or India (2.9). And preferably as low as, for instance, Spain (0.6), or even Japan (0.2). Edit: Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intenti...
  - explaininjs 3y ago
    Excuse me what? You’re claiming there are only 0.9 homicides per 100k people in Palestine? That’s so far from the truth I can’t begin to take you seriously.
    - rthomas6 3y ago
      That's the number Wikipedia gives for 2021. It's sourced from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Maybe the data is self-reported and Palestine fudged the numbers? Maybe it's accurate for the time period and just surprising? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intenti...
      - jakear 3y ago
        At least 280 Palestinians were killed by Israelis in 2021. With a population of ~5,000,000, that alone accounts for 5.6 deaths per 100k lives. Here's a list of those killed: https://israelpalestinetimeline.org/2021deaths/ https://israelpalestinetimeline.org/2021deaths/. Pay special attention to all the women and children. This is not a country to we should aspire to match murder rates.
        vxNsr 3y ago
        [flagged]
        jakear 3y ago
- SV_BubbleTime 3y ago
  Maybe around 2.0 where rial USA is? We know largely who is committing murder, we know who they are murdering, we know basically down to the blocks where it is happening, and we know why… These things are all ignored because no one actually wants to do anything about it or they don’t like the ideas. Who is out there advocating for the national guard to deploy in Riverdale, Englewood, Pullman… or Monroe, Opelousas… or Newark by itself? No one. Definitely not the repeatedly elected governments there. It’s a poverty and drug problem and we know we don’t solve those.

by oofbey 3y ago

Mistletoe 3y ago

I don’t know, I’m pretty excited about 6.8 to 5.5. What would you suggest/like to see?

maxniederhofer 3y ago
0. We'd like to see 0
- jrflowers 3y ago
  Yes, we should aspire to a murder rate seen only in the asteroid belt and other places uninhabited by humans. Recreating those circumstances would temporarily raise the homicide rate in a given year but it would drop to 0 in the next.
- oivey 3y ago
  What’s your plan for that? I was going to say maybe put every single American in prison, but even that probably wouldn’t work.
  - giantg2 3y ago
    Homicide rates in jails or prisons are only slightly lower than the population in general.
    - lelanthran 3y ago
      > Homicide rates in jails or prisons are only slightly lower than the population in general. That's concerning; if we're forcing people into each others space, we should at least prevent them from killing each other.
- hindsightbias 3y ago
  There’s always going to be a stabby techie taking you from 0 to 1.
srinivgp 3y ago
It contextualized, of course. <= 2019: 4.5-5.5 == 2023: ~5.5 (between: significantly higher, also COVID, probably not a coincidence)
piyush_soni 3y ago
Of course, to the level of other saner countries?
- SV_BubbleTime 3y ago
  Our drug economy alone is larger than a lot of “more civilized” countries. But we can’t talk about that. Only look at murder as some naturally occurring phenomenon.
penjelly 3y ago
it seemed obvious from his comment? He wants a drop to BELOW precovid levels because covid was the correlated with a sharp increase and covids effects on society at large have now (mostly) subsided
rthomas6 3y ago
Personally I would like to see us go below countries like Afghanistan (4.0), Argentina (4.6), Kenya (5.3), Iran (2.4), Israel (1.9), Palestine (0.9), or India (2.9). And preferably as low as, for instance, Spain (0.6), or even Japan (0.2). Edit: Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intenti...
- explaininjs 3y ago
  Excuse me what? You’re claiming there are only 0.9 homicides per 100k people in Palestine? That’s so far from the truth I can’t begin to take you seriously.
  - rthomas6 3y ago
    That's the number Wikipedia gives for 2021. It's sourced from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Maybe the data is self-reported and Palestine fudged the numbers? Maybe it's accurate for the time period and just surprising? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intenti...
    - jakear 3y ago
      At least 280 Palestinians were killed by Israelis in 2021. With a population of ~5,000,000, that alone accounts for 5.6 deaths per 100k lives. Here's a list of those killed: https://israelpalestinetimeline.org/2021deaths/ https://israelpalestinetimeline.org/2021deaths/. Pay special attention to all the women and children. This is not a country to we should aspire to match murder rates.
      - vxNsr 3y ago
        [flagged]
        jakear 3y ago
SV_BubbleTime 3y ago
Maybe around 2.0 where rial USA is? We know largely who is committing murder, we know who they are murdering, we know basically down to the blocks where it is happening, and we know why… These things are all ignored because no one actually wants to do anything about it or they don’t like the ideas. Who is out there advocating for the national guard to deploy in Riverdale, Englewood, Pullman… or Monroe, Opelousas… or Newark by itself? No one. Definitely not the repeatedly elected governments there. It’s a poverty and drug problem and we know we don’t solve those.